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Repository: LuckyOne7777/LLM-Trading-Lab
Branch: main
Commit: 2552d9f8f759
Files: 60
Total size: 351.7 KB
Directory structure:
gitextract_7w57q3y0/
├── .github/
│ └── workflows/
│ └── workflow.yaml
├── .gitignore
├── Experiments/
│ └── chatgpt_micro-cap/
│ ├── collected_artifacts/
│ │ ├── README.md
│ │ ├── Weekly Deep Research (MD)/
│ │ │ ├── Starting Research Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 1 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 10 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 11 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 12 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 13 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 14 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 15 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 16 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 17 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 18 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 19 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 2 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 20 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 21 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 22 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 23 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 24 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 25 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 26 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 3 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 4 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 5 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 6 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 7 Summary.md
│ │ │ ├── Week 8 Summary.md
│ │ │ └── Week 9 Summary.md
│ │ ├── chats.md
│ │ └── deep_research_index.md
│ ├── csv_files/
│ │ ├── Daily Updates.csv
│ │ └── Trade Log.csv
│ ├── evaluation/
│ │ └── evaluation_report.md
│ ├── graphing/
│ │ ├── daily_returns.py
│ │ ├── data_helper.py
│ │ ├── drawdown.py
│ │ ├── episode_pcr_scatter.py
│ │ ├── equity_vs_baseline.py
│ │ ├── highest_pnl_by_ticker.py
│ │ ├── holding_chart.py
│ │ ├── holding_distribution.py
│ │ ├── max_drawdown_vs_largest_run.py
│ │ ├── repeated_ticker_exposure.py
│ │ ├── returns_by_trades.py
│ │ └── top_losses_vs_wins.py
│ ├── scripts/
│ │ ├── metrics/
│ │ │ ├── episode_pcr.py
│ │ │ └── load_dataV3.py
│ │ └── processing/
│ │ ├── ProcessPortfolio.py
│ │ └── trading_script.py
│ └── tables/
│ └── metrics.txt
├── Makefile
├── Other/
│ ├── AUTOMATION_README.md
│ ├── CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md
│ ├── CONTRIBUTING.md
│ ├── License.txt
│ └── ignore_list.gitignore
├── README.md
└── requirements.txt
================================================
FILE CONTENTS
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FILE: .github/workflows/workflow.yaml
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# yaml-language-server: $schema=https://json.schemastore.org/github-workflow.json
name: Auto Commit
# on:
# workflow_dispatch:
# schedule:
# - cron: "30 23 * * 1-5" # 5:30 PM CST Mon–Fri
permissions:
contents: write
jobs:
commit:
runs-on: ubuntu-latest
steps:
- name: Set Repo
uses: actions/checkout@v4
with:
persist-credentials: true # allow pushing
- name: Set Python
uses: actions/setup-python@v5
with:
python-version: "3.11"
- name: Install dependencies
run: |
pip install -r requirements.txt
pip install pandas-market-calendars
- name: End if market holiday or weekend
run: |
python - << 'EOF'
import sys
from datetime import datetime
import pandas_market_calendars as mcal
nyse = mcal.get_calendar('NYSE')
today = datetime.utcnow().date()
schedule = nyse.schedule(start_date=today, end_date=today)
if schedule.empty:
print("NYSE is closed today — holiday or weekend. Skipping workflow.")
sys.exit(78) # NEUTRAL EXIT CODE
else:
print("Market open — continuing workflow.")
EOF
- name: Process portfolio
run: python trading_script.py --data-dir "Scripts and CSV Files" --starting-equity 100 --skip
- name: Update Graph
run: python "Scripts and CSV Files/Generate Graph.py"
- name: Commit and push
run: |
DATE=$(date +"%m/%d")
git config user.name "github-actions[bot]"
git config user.email "github-actions[bot]@users.noreply.github.com"
git add .
git commit -m "Automated update for $DATE" || echo "No changes to commit"
git push
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FILE: .gitignore
================================================
CLAUDE.md
venv
.idea
__pycache__
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FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/README.md
================================================
# Artifact Conventions
This directory stores all generated research artifacts.
## Weekly Deep Research
Each research week has:
- One Markdown summary (MD)
- One compiled PDF report
Naming convention:
- `Week <N> Summary.md`
- `Week <N>.pdf`
Example:
- `Week 12 Summary.md`
- `Week 12.pdf`
The index file (`deep_research_index.md`) is the canonical entry point.
Direct navigation of this directory is not required.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Starting Research Summary.md
================================================
## Portfolio Summary and Allocation
With a $100 capital and a 6-month horizon, we’ve constructed a concentrated micro-cap portfolio aiming for maximum return. All picks are U.S.-listed micro-cap stocks (sub-$300M market caps) chosen for strong catalysts or growth potential by December 27, 2025.
We’ve balanced high-upside biotech plays with an AI/tech growth stock, and we’ll actively manage risk through position sizing and stop-loss orders.
### Initial Portfolio Allocation:
- **Abeona Therapeutics (ABEO)** – 6 shares ≈ $36 (36% of portfolio)
- **Candel Therapeutics (CADL)** – 5 shares ≈ $28 (28% of portfolio)
- **Cloudastructure Inc (CSAI)** – 15 shares ≈ $30 (30% of portfolio)
- **Cash Reserve:** ≈ $6 (6% cash for flexibility or fees)
Each stock is a full-share position and was selected based on verifiable positive research and upcoming catalysts. Below we detail the thesis for each holding and our risk management plan.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 1 Summary.md
================================================
## Revised Portfolio Allocation (July 5, 2025)
After the above adjustments, the portfolio is repositioned as follows:
---
### ABEO (Abeona Therapeutics) – ~$5.87, 1 Share
**Status:** Hold
**Thesis & Catalysts:**
- Gene therapy for RDEB just launched (FDA-approved)
- $225M cash provides 2+ years of runway
- Catalysts: Initial sales in 2H 2025 and potential early profitability
- Added to Russell indices; ~13% short float could spark a squeeze
- Undervalued relative to cash and pipeline
---
### CADL (Candel Therapeutics) – ~$4.99, 1 Share
**Status:** Hold
**Thesis & Catalysts:**
- Oncolytic virus immunotherapy with strong Phase 3 prostate cancer data (30% lower recurrence)
- Promising pancreatic cancer data (2x survival vs control)
- Well-funded (~$100M cash)
- Catalysts: Phase 1 glioma data in Q4 2025
- ~16% short interest adds squeeze potential
- High upside if data is positive
---
### AZTR (Azitra, Inc.) – ~$0.25, 55 Shares
**Status:** Buy (New Position)
**Thesis & Catalysts:**
- Ultra-micro-cap biotech developing skin microbiome therapy for RDEB
- Phase II/III trial readout due Q4 2025 (interim: 60% wound healing vs 15% placebo)
- Potential for first-in-class approval
- ~$4M market cap and 52-week low price suggest deep value
- Very high risk, but positioned for asymmetric upside
---
### Cash Remaining: ~$0
Virtually all capital was deployed into Azitra to maximize potential upside given the short investment horizon.
This new allocation leans heavily into biotech catalyst plays with the goal of achieving exponential returns by year-end. Each holding fits a distinct thesis:
- ABEO — Post-approval undervaluation with short squeeze potential
- CADL — Multiple oncology catalysts with major data in Q4
- AZTR — High-risk, high-reward position on pivotal trial outcome
This concentrated, high-conviction strategy accepts elevated volatility in pursuit of outsized return.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 10 Summary.md
================================================
# Portfolio Moves at a Glance
_Date: August 30, 2025_
## Keep / No Change
- `ABEO` — hold 4 shares; stop $6.00. Thesis intact: gene therapy launch progressing; company well-capitalized. Already in profit; waiting for commercialization milestones.
- `AXGN` — hold 2 shares; stop raised to $13.00 (from $12.00). Despite FDA delay, fundamentals (revenue growth, approaching profitability) support holding through **Dec 5 PDUFA**; tighter stop manages risk during the wait.
## Add to Existing Position
- `ATYR` — buy +3 (to 11 total); stop $4.20. High conviction in efzofitimod Phase 3 potential; now the largest holding (~$59). Positive setup (completed enrollment, strong scientific rationale, limited competition). Size remains modest and acknowledges gap risk.
## Exit / Trim Positions
- `IINN` — sell 10 (exit). Catalyst ($22.5M order) realized; momentum faded; dilution risk. Redeploy ~\$11 to higher-impact ideas (ATYR, FBIO).
## Initiate New Position
- `FBIO` — buy 4 @ $2.58; stop $2.00. Near-term catalyst: **Sept 30** FDA decision on CUTX-101 (potential PRV worth ~$100M+), which could drive a re-rating. Diversified assets cushion downside vs. single-asset risk. ($10, ~7–8% of portfolio); liquidity adequate (avg volume >300K).
## Notes
- No other new positions added. `OKYO` and `GENK` were considered but not added due to timing and cash constraints.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 11 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
In summary, our portfolio is positioning for strong catalyst-driven growth while tightening risk controls.
We have exited Axogen to redeploy into more immediate opportunities, namely Fortress Biotech (upcoming
FDA decision) and 4D Molecular Therapeutics (post-positive data momentum). Our core holdings Abeona
and aTyr remain high-conviction to outperform the market – Abeona is transitioning to commercial stage
with a funded runway , and aTyr is on the cusp of Phase 3 results that could be transformative.
These two form the backbone of our thesis, supported by solid fundamentals and news flow. Fortress and
4DMT add tactical spice: one a near-term binary event play, the other a beaten-down innovator with new
validation. Overall, the portfolio is up ~32% in 9 weeks, far ahead of the S&P 500’s ~4.5% in the same
period, and we aim to build on that lead . The coming week (Week 10) will be about catalyst anticipation
and risk management – ensuring we have the right exposure levels as we head into late September’s event
calendar. We will review the thesis on each name continuously and remain ready to adjust if the story
changes
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 12 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
To wrap up, our portfolio strategy for **Week 10** remains focused on catalyst-driven alpha, balanced by tightened risk controls. We have repositioned the portfolio for upcoming inflection points.
---
## Core Holdings
### **aTyr Pharma (ATYR)**
- Continues to be a cornerstone due to the transformative potential of **efzofitimod’s Phase 3 results**.
- Trimmed the stake to protect gains and reduce binary risk exposure.
- **High conviction:** if positive, ATYR could be a game-changer (large unmet market).
- **Risk management:** hedged downside to ensure portfolio outperformance vs. the S&P 500 even in a negative scenario.
### **Abeona Therapeutics (ABEO)**
- Now a **commercial-stage company** with an FDA-approved therapy and >2 years of cash runway.
- Patiently holding unless technicals force an exit.
- Thesis: capitalize on **RDEB gene therapy approval** and potentially attract acquisition interest.
- Watching upcoming conference updates for launch traction.
- Along with ATYR, forms the **“backbone” of the portfolio**:
- ATYR → near-term catalyst.
- ABEO → medium-term commercial ramp.
---
## Tactical Positions
### **Fortress Biotech (FBIO)**
- Approaching binary **FDA catalyst at month’s end**.
- Increased exposure: approval + PRV sale could significantly boost value.
- A calculated, event-driven risk consistent with alpha mandate.
### **4D Molecular Therapeutics (FDMT)**
- Already delivered on initial thesis (positive data, stock rebound).
- Now a longer-term bet on **ophthalmology gene therapy**.
- Strong balance sheet (~$417M cash) + **fast-tracked Phase 3 trials**.
- Acts as a **“life jacket”** in a sea of binary risks: intrinsic value + multiple shots on goal.
- Plan to hold through Q4 milestones unless fundamentals shift.
---
## Opportunistic Bet
### **Soligenix (SNGX)**
- New addition with **exciting early data** and tiny float.
- Small allocation = minimal risk, high upside optionality.
- Treated as an **opportunistic trade** (momentum play), not a long-term hold.
- Adds tactical “spice” to boost returns.
---
## Performance Recap
- After **9 weeks**, portfolio is **up ~35%** vs. S&P’s **~6%**.
- The coming week is **crucial**:
- **Successful aTyr readout** → potential major upside.
- **Failure scenario** → cuts into outperformance, but portfolio still retains substantial lead due to:
- Gains already banked.
- Diversification across catalysts and risk tiers.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 13 Summary.md
================================================
# Week 14 Thesis Outlook (Summary)
The portfolio is now streamlined around high-conviction, event-driven biotech catalysts, with weaker and longer-dated plays (e.g., SNGX, FDMT) removed. The central thesis: catalyst-rich micro-caps can deliver outsized gains as small-cap biotech regains momentum and investors hunt for alpha. Market conditions support this view, with small-caps rallying from deep undervaluation and biotech indices showing strong risk appetite.
## Three Themes Driving the Portfolio:
Near-Term FDA Decisions (FBIO, ALDX)
FBIO (Fortress Biotech): Menkes disease drug CUTX-101, NDA accepted with priority review. Likely approval given unmet need and strong data. Bullish stance into the decision; downside hedged.
ALDX (Aldeyra): Reproxalap for dry eye flares, backed by positive Phase 3. Could be both a catalyst and a takeover target post-approval.
→ Week 14 focus: FBIO’s PDUFA event, potentially portfolio-transforming.
Turnaround with Big Pharma Backing (SPRO)
SPRO (Spero Therapeutics): Tebipenem filing with FDA, supported by GSK partnership. ~$125M market cap looks undervalued for a near-commercial antibiotic.
Expect steady progress rather than a breakout; potential bump on NDA filing news.
→ Strategy: Hold and possibly accumulate on dips.
## Special Situations & Micro-Cap Upswing
Monitoring IOBT (IO Biotech) Phase 3 cancer vaccine data; positive results could rally immunotherapy peers and justify a tactical trade.
Broader thesis: Russell 2000 strength and historic small-cap comeback bodes well for all holdings.
## Outlook:
Portfolio is catalyst-driven, risk-managed, and positioned for asymmetric upside.
Week 14 is pivotal: FBIO’s FDA decision will test the core thesis and set the tone.
Overall stance: cautiously optimistic, with discipline on stops and readiness to adapt to new information
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 14 Summary.md
================================================
As we enter Week 14, the portfolio is positioned squarely around high-impact biotech catalysts, with three holdings each representing a distinct facet of our strategy:
### Near-term FDA Decision – Fortress Biotech (FBIO)
This is our high-conviction event play. FBIO’s CUTX-101 for Menkes disease faces an FDA decision on Sept 30. Our thesis is that CUTX-101 will win approval (supported by Breakthrough and priority review, strong efficacy in a rare pediatric disease) [primetherapeutics.com](https://primetherapeutics.com), which could be game-changing for FBIO’s tiny ~$110M market cap. We’ve slightly increased our stake in FBIO to amplify this potential asymmetric payoff. If successful, FBIO could surge (finally validating our catalyst-driven approach), while our preset stop limits the downside if the unexpected occurs. This binary event will be the truest test of our strategy so far.
### Medium-term Catalyst & Quality Asset – Aldeyra (ALDX)
ALDX remains a core holding, embodying our “catalyst + buyout” theme. Its dry eye drug’s December PDUFA and the optionality of a Big Pharma partnership (AbbVie) [ophthalmology360.com](https://ophthalmology360.com) give it significant upside. We expect a steady news flow into year-end – any indications of FDA favorability or AbbVie’s plans could re-rate the stock. We trimmed a small portion solely for risk management, not due to loss of faith. ALDX’s inclusion keeps our portfolio anchored in a slightly later catalyst, providing a follow-up opportunity after FBIO. This staggered catalyst approach (Sept, then Dec) is intentional to potentially drive a second leg of portfolio gains. Our thesis: by Q4, if Reproxalap is approved (or Aldeyra is acquired), ALDX’s value could be many times our entry, rewarding our patience.
### Turnaround with Pharma Backing – Spero Therapeutics (SPRO)
Our new position in SPRO adds a strategic, lower-risk growth play to the mix. SPRO’s partnership with GSK on its oral antibiotic positions it for likely FDA filing in the coming months and, by extension, a strong chance of approval given Phase 3 success ([sperotherapeutics.com](https://sperotherapeutics.com)). The stock’s current depression (under $2) belies the tremendous progress and de-risking done via GSK’s involvement. Our thesis is that as the market recognizes SPRO’s funded runway and impending NDA, the stock will climb (potentially well ahead of the actual approval). SPRO diversifies our catalyst timeline (it may appreciate on filing news even before the formal FDA decision in 2026) and adds a fundamentally robust story to our portfolio. It’s a classic “undervalued turnaround” that complements the pure catalyst plays in FBIO and ALDX.
---
### Summary
The portfolio is now composed of three micro-cap biotech bets that each exemplify our experiment’s core idea: find small companies on the cusp of major catalysts or inflection points that can deliver outsized gains. The overall thesis – that a rebounding small-cap biotech market will reward catalytic events – still holds. We see increasing risk appetite in the sector, and our holdings are positioned to capitalize on that: FBIO for an immediate binary win, ALDX for a medium-term approval/M&A, and SPRO for a steadily building rerating with big pharma validation. We have tight risk controls (stops in place, position sizes adjusted) to guard against the inherent volatility.
Going into next week, we are cautiously optimistic. The portfolio has been optimized with fresh research and a prudent shuffle of assets (trimming where prudent, adding where conviction is highest). Now, it’s about execution and monitoring. If our theses play out, the coming weeks could see a significant recovery in our performance (currently at $85.22 vs ~$107 had we been in S&P 500). We are prepared to adapt quickly as news comes in. The focus remains: stick to high-conviction catalysts, manage the risks, and aim for an asymmetric payoff that could close the gap with the benchmark by the experiment’s end.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 15 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
As we enter **Week 14**, the portfolio is positioned squarely around **high-impact biotech catalysts**, with three holdings each representing a distinct facet of our strategy:
- **Near-term FDA Decision – Fortress Biotech (FBIO):**
This is our high-conviction event play. FBIO’s CUTX-101 for Menkes disease faces an FDA decision on **Sept 30**.
Our thesis is that CUTX-101 will win approval (supported by Breakthrough and priority review, strong efficacy in a rare pediatric disease), which could be game-changing for FBIO’s tiny ~$110M market cap.
We’ve slightly increased our stake in FBIO to amplify this potential asymmetric payoff. If successful, FBIO could surge (finally validating our catalyst-driven approach), while our preset stop limits the downside if the unexpected occurs.
This binary event will be the truest test of our strategy so far.
- **Medium-term Catalyst & Quality Asset – Aldeyra (ALDX):**
ALDX remains a core holding, embodying our “catalyst + buyout” theme.
Its dry eye drug’s **December PDUFA** and the optionality of a Big Pharma partnership (AbbVie) give it significant upside.
We expect a steady news flow into year-end – any indications of FDA favorability or AbbVie’s plans could re-rate the stock.
We trimmed a small portion solely for risk management, not due to loss of faith.
ALDX’s inclusion keeps our portfolio anchored in a slightly later catalyst, providing a follow-up opportunity after FBIO.
This staggered catalyst approach (Sept, then Dec) is intentional to potentially drive a second leg of portfolio gains.
**Thesis:** by Q4, if Reproxalap is approved (or Aldeyra is acquired), ALDX’s value could be many times our entry, rewarding our patience.
- **Turnaround with Pharma Backing – Spero Therapeutics (SPRO):**
Our new position in SPRO adds a strategic, lower-risk growth play to the mix.
SPRO’s partnership with **GSK** on its oral antibiotic positions it for likely FDA filing in the coming months and, by extension, a strong chance of approval given Phase 3 success.
The stock’s current depression (under $2) belies the tremendous progress and de-risking done via GSK’s involvement.
Our thesis is that as the market recognizes SPRO’s funded runway and impending NDA, the stock will climb (potentially well ahead of the actual approval).
SPRO diversifies our catalyst timeline (it may appreciate on filing news even before the formal FDA decision in 2026) and adds a fundamentally robust story to our portfolio.
It’s a classic “undervalued turnaround” that complements the pure catalyst plays in FBIO and ALDX.
---
In summary, the portfolio is now composed of **three micro-cap biotech bets** that each exemplify our experiment’s core idea: find small companies on the cusp of major catalysts or inflection points that can deliver outsized gains.
The overall thesis – that a rebounding small-cap biotech market will reward catalytic events – still holds. We see increasing risk appetite in the sector, and our holdings are positioned to capitalize on that:
- **FBIO** for an immediate binary win
- **ALDX** for a medium-term approval/M&A
- **SPRO** for a steadily building rerating with big pharma validation
We have tight risk controls (stops in place, position sizes adjusted) to guard against the inherent volatility.
---
Going into next week, we are cautiously optimistic.
The portfolio has been optimized with fresh research and a prudent shuffle of assets (trimming where prudent, adding where conviction is highest).
Now, it’s about execution and monitoring.
If our theses play out, the coming weeks could see a significant recovery in our performance (**currently at $85.22 vs ~$107 had we been in S&P 500**).
We are prepared to adapt quickly as news comes in.
The focus remains: stick to high-conviction catalysts, manage the risks, and aim for an asymmetric payoff that could close the gap with the benchmark by the experiment’s end.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 16 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
By rebalancing the portfolio in **Week 16**, we have sharpened our focus on high-impact, near-term catalysts while shoring up risk controls. We enter the coming weeks with three distinct biotech bets:
---
## 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Highest-conviction position | Near-term binary catalyst – FDA decision (Dec 13)**
MIST epitomizes the portfolio’s swing for asymmetric rewards. The **December 13 FDA decision** for its PSVT nasal spray is a catalyst with the potential to dramatically boost our portfolio’s value if approved. We’ve done the homework: the CRL issues were addressed
[ainvest.com](https://ainvest.com), and the therapy could fill a genuine unmet need in cardiology (treating rapid heart arrhythmias at home).
At a ~$200M valuation, the market is skeptical, but we believe this is a classic case of a beaten-down micro-cap poised for a comeback.
**Our thesis:** If the FDA greenlights etripamil, Milestone’s stock could multiply (analysts suggest a move to the teens per share on approval
[ainvest.com](https://ainvest.com)). That would not only close our performance gap with the S&P, it could put us well ahead.
We’ve allocated boldly here (~42% of portfolio) to maximize the benefit if our thesis proves correct – all while being mindful of the downside (a stop is in place, and position size is such that a total loss, while damaging, would not zero out the portfolio).
---
## 2. Spero Therapeutics (SPRO)
**Steady performer | Mid-term catalyst – NDA submission with GSK**
SPRO continues to anchor the portfolio with a somewhat lower-risk catalyst on the horizon. Its partnership with **GSK** and the upcoming **NDA submission for its oral antibiotic** give it a fundamentally strong foundation
[biospace.com](https://biospace.com).
We trimmed the position to fund MIST, but remain confident in SPRO’s value. This is the “slow-burn” catalyst in our basket: the stock may appreciate gradually as regulatory milestones are met (NDA filing acceptance, etc.) and as investors recognize the 2026 approval opportunity.
Importantly, SPRO provides diversification: unlike MIST (which is binary in the next 2 months), SPRO’s catalyst is on a longer timeline and its downside is cushioned by its major pharma partner and solid cash runway.
**Our thesis:** By the experiment’s end, we may not see explosive moves, but we expect a positive bias in the stock price as the NDA news comes out. Beyond this experiment, SPRO has all the hallmarks of a multi-bagger (a tiny cap addressing a large need with Big Pharma backing). For now, it remains a core hold, just right-sized.
---
## 3. Tiziana Life Sciences (TLSA)
**Innovative wild card | Thematic and momentum play**
TLSA’s **intranasal foralumab** is pioneering a new route of immunotherapy for neurodegenerative and autoimmune diseases. Our thesis has been that Tiziana’s numerous “irons in the fire” (MS, ALS, Alzheimer’s, etc.) and its novel delivery method could attract increasing investor and possibly partner interest.
The stock’s year-to-date performance (**+200%+**) and continued positive updates validate that thesis
[nasdaq.com](https://nasdaq.com) | [tizianalifesciences.com](https://tizianalifesciences.com).
While TLSA won’t have a binary event during our experiment, we expect its strong news flow to continue – acting as a catalyst in its own right by keeping the stock on an upward trajectory.
In the next weeks, any additional data or even speculation of a partnership (not uncommon for a company with such a platform) could lift the stock.
We’ve kept the position smaller, reflecting its medium-term horizon, but view TLSA as a **high-upside, moderate-risk** component. It balances the portfolio by not being purely dependent on FDA decisions; it has a pipeline story that could independently create value.
Our stop-loss will protect us in case momentum reverses, but otherwise we plan to ride the trend.
**Thesis:** Tiziana’s approach could be paradigm-shifting (e.g., an MS therapy that is nasal rather than IV) – that promise should continue to attract investor attention into year-end, especially as micro-caps start to recover sector-wide.
---
## Summary
Our portfolio realignment leaves us with a concentrated yet, we believe, well-considered trio of positions.
- **MIST:** Near-term binary catalyst (FDA decision)
- **SPRO:** Mid-term catalyst with long-term multi-bagger potential (NDA/approval with GSK support)
- **TLSA:** Innovative growth story (multiple trials and steady news flow)
All three trade at valuations that, in our analysis, do not fully price in their upside potential.
We have effectively increased the portfolio’s **“beta” to biotech catalysts** – a necessary move given we are currently behind the benchmark (**$81.8 vs $105.6 from $100 start**) and have limited time to catch up
[spotlightgrowth.com](https://spotlightgrowth.com).
This comes with higher risk, but our **risk management tools** are in place:
- Position sizing (three distinct bets)
- Stop-loss orders
- Diligent monitoring
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 17 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
Going into Week 17, our portfolio is now a concentrated bet on three high-impact catalysts:
---
### 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Thesis:** A pure FDA binary play. MIST is awaiting a Dec 13 FDA decision on its PSVT therapy, which, if positive, could be transformational for the company and our portfolio.
We’ve kept MIST as our largest holding because:
(a) we have strong conviction from due diligence that the drug’s prior issues have been resolved, and
(b) the payoff could be game-changing (multi-bagger potential).
We accept the binary risk here, buffered by a stop-loss to guard against total collapse. In essence, MIST is our “home run” swing to catch up to the S&P – as of now, nothing has derailed this thesis.
We expect increasing attention on MIST as the PDUFA date nears, which could itself lift the stock price in anticipation.
---
### 2. Aytu BioPharma (AYTU)
**Thesis:** An undervalued commercial story about to unfold.
Aytu is launching **EXXUA**, the first new-class antidepressant in years, targeting a huge market with unmet needs (notably, EXXUA doesn’t have the sexual side effects common to SSRIs).
The market seems to be in “wait and see” mode – the stock is still tiny – which gives us a chance to get in early. Our bet is that as launch news trickles out (formulary placements, prescription numbers, etc.), investors will re-rate Aytu upwards.
With backing from reputable healthcare investors and the company’s own commercialization experience, execution risk is moderated (though not eliminated).
By the experiment’s end (late Dec), we should have at least initial signals of how EXXUA is being received. Even a small market penetration could justify a market cap many times the current $23M.
Our stop at **$1.80** protects us if the market loses confidence (e.g., if launch is delayed or initial uptake is poor).
But our baseline expectation is that AYTU’s stock will trend upward through Q4 as EXXUA hits the market – making this a timely entry.
---
### 3. Microbot Medical (MBOT)
**Thesis:** Riding the momentum of a breakthrough device approval.
Microbot’s **LIBERTY** robotic system clearance is a big deal in medtech – it’s literally the first of its kind (remotely-operated, single-use robot).
Such a novelty could see rapid adoption if marketed well, because it addresses real needs (reducing physician radiation exposure, improving access to advanced procedures in more settings).
We believe the next few weeks will bring increased visibility: MBOT management is actively promoting the device (conferences, investor events) and preparing for a Q4 commercial launch.
Any concrete progress (first sale, hospital interest, partnership) could spike the stock. Even absent that, the “hype cycle” for a cleared device may continue – sometimes these stocks run up into the launch just on optimism.
We’ve seen a slight pullback which we used to initiate our position; now we will watch for a reversal upward.
Downside risks include the company possibly needing additional capital next year for full commercialization – but near-term, they already signaled accelerated launch plans with existing resources.
Our stop at **$2.30** is there in case the stock unexpectedly fades (which would imply the catalyst hype is over or delayed).
However, we anticipate positive news flow. In summary, MBOT is our play on an innovative tech adoption story, which complements the drug stories in our portfolio.
---
### Why this portfolio now?
After this rebalance, we’ve essentially doubled down on “catalyst acceleration.”
All three positions have events in Q4 2025 that can drastically move their stock prices.
This is a conscious pivot from a more diversified approach to a focused one – we recognize that, with only ~10 weeks left, incremental gains won’t catch up a >20% deficit versus the S&P.
We need one or two big wins. MIST, AYTU, and MBOT each have the capacity to possibly double (or more) on good outcomes.
Importantly, they are independent events (an FDA approval, a product launch, and a device commercialization), so the success of one is not inherently correlated with the others. This gives us three “shots on goal.”
We’ve also set protective stops to limit the damage if any single thesis fails.
---
### The coming week
We’ll be watching for initial feedback:
- Does the market start pricing in EXXUA’s launch (AYTU climbing)?
- Do we hear anything from Microbot’s conference presentations (any buzz from the medical community)?
- Does MIST remain steady or start creeping up on no news (which could indicate speculative buying ahead of FDA)?
We will review these questions in the next update.
Overall, the portfolio is high-risk, but it’s a calculated risk aligned with our mandate to seek alpha. Every position has a clear catalyst and defined exit strategy.
We’ve rotated out of slower plays (**SPRO, TLSA**) to ensure every dollar is working hard toward our year-end goal.
Now it’s about diligent monitoring and risk management as we let these theses play out.
---
### Next Week’s Outlook
Expect potentially more volatility, but also the chance for news-driven upside.
We will report on any material developments and will be ready to adjust if needed.
The focus is now on **execution** – both by our companies (launching and delivering on their catalysts) and by us (responding swiftly to market movements).
We are entering the “make or break” phase of the experiment with a portfolio tailored for exactly that.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 18 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
---
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Thesis:**
Milestone is our swing for a home run – an FDA approval of etripamil (Brand: “CARDAMYST”) could be transformative. The FDA’s acceptance of the resubmission and assignment of a Dec 13 PDUFA gives us a clear catalyst
[hcplive.com](hcplive.com).
We believe the issues in the prior CRL (impurities and inspection) have been adequately addressed
[investing.com](investing.com).
If approved, MIST’s self-administered PSVT therapy would fill an unmet need (potentially first-line for episodes of rapid heart rate), which could make the stock dramatically rerate. Analysts see upside as well – e.g., Wells Fargo’s initiation at **Overweight** with a **$4.00 target** underscores the multi-bagger potential
[investing.com](investing.com).
**This week:**
MIST stock held around the high-$1.80s on no news. We added a tiny bit to our position with leftover cash, reflecting our conviction.
**Risks:**
Binary FDA risk is huge; a rejection could send shares < $1 (hence our stop at $1.70 to limit damage). But the reward-risk still skews positive in our view, especially as the date nears.
We remain **bullish and patient**.
---
## Aytu BioPharma (AYTU)
**Thesis:**
Aytu is on the cusp of launching **EXXUA™**, a novel antidepressant. This is the first new mechanism antidepressant approved in years and crucially lacks the sexual side effects of SSRIs
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
The depression market is enormous (~$22B U.S. market), and even a tiny penetration by EXXUA could multiply Aytu’s current ~$22M market cap
[finance.yahoo.com](finance.yahoo.com).
We see AYTU as deep value with a catalyst: it has an existing commercial infrastructure (from its ADHD products) and backing from healthcare-focused funds
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
**This week:**
AYTU’s share price is steady ~ $2.30, with the company actively presenting to investors (in NYC and Toronto conferences) to build awareness
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
No negative news on the launch timeline was noted – they appear on track to have EXXUA in the market by year-end. We maintained our position.
**Risks:**
Execution is key – if the launch disappoints or gets delayed, the stock could fall (stop at $1.80).
Dilution is less a concern near-term post the June financing (done at $1.50/share, now behind us
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net)).
We like the **risk/reward** here: limited downside (cash and other products give some valuation floor) versus major upside if EXXUA gains traction.
We’ll continue to monitor launch progress but remain optimistic that by the experiment’s end, **AYTU will be higher**.
---
## Microbot Medical (MBOT)
**Thesis:**
Microbot is our play on a cutting-edge medical device about to hit the market. Their **LIBERTY robotic system** – the first-ever single-use endovascular robot – received FDA clearance in August
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
This device allows remote catheter procedures with reduced radiation and improved precision
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
MBOT plans to commercialize LIBERTY in **Q4 2025**, targeting an initial market of **2.5 million procedures/year**
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net).
We expect a “hype cycle” as the launch gets underway: even the story of the first robotic tool of its kind could attract investors, not to mention actual sales or partnerships validating the technology.
**This week:**
MBOT’s stock drifted lower to ~$2.42
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net), likely normal post-news cooling and warrant-related selling (the company raised ~$29M via warrant exercises around $1.50–$2.13
[stocktitan.net](stocktitan.net)), ultimately good for fundamentals.
The thesis remains unchanged – the cash infusion funds the launch, and management is promoting the device aggressively. We’re holding through the commercialization milestone.
**Risks:**
As a pre-revenue company, if the launch falters or gets delayed, the stock could slide (stop at $2.30).
Being a small medtech, MBOT is sensitive to sentiment and volatility.
However, upside on any positive development (first hospital adoption, etc.) is significant.
We’ve sized this smaller than MIST/AYTU due to volatility but still meaningful. Ready to cut if needed, but for now see a favorable setup going into Q4.
---
## Cash & Orders
After deploying nearly all cash, we’re **fully invested**.
We used the last ~$2 to incrementally add to MIST – reflecting confidence in that position’s risk-reward.
It’s a minor move but symbolic that we prefer capital working in our best ideas rather than idle.
No other changes were made, as we believe our current trio is the right mix for our **bold year-end push**.
---
## Summary Outlook
Our portfolio is positioned for a **make-or-break final quarter**.
We have three independent shots at significant gains:
- **FDA approval (MIST)**
- **Product launch (AYTU)**
- **Tech commercialization (MBOT)**
Each carries high risk, but collectively they offer multiple chances to catch a big break.
We have tight risk controls (stops) to guard against disaster if any single bet fails.
The coming weeks will be critical – we will stay alert and ready to adjust, but we’re entering this phase with a **clear plan and strong conviction** in each holding’s thesis.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 19 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
To conclude, let’s summarize the investment thesis for each current holding (and our new addition) and why we believe our portfolio is positioned well for the final stretch of this experiment:
---
### 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Thesis:** MIST is our high-conviction biotech bet on an upcoming FDA approval. The company’s etripamil nasal spray (Brand: “Cardamyst”) could become the first self-administered therapy for paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT), a condition where patients currently often rush to the ER to get intravenous medication. This is a game-changer if approved – it empowers patients to treat episodes at home, addressing a clear unmet need.
The FDA’s prior concerns were not about the drug’s efficacy or safety (those were demonstrated in trials), but about chemical manufacturing controls (nitrosamine impurities and a facility inspection). MIST resubmitted with fixes, and the FDA set a **Dec 13, 2025 PDUFA date**.
Our thesis is that MIST has a strong chance of approval given positive clinical data and resolved CMC issues. If that happens, we expect a significant stock re-rating (potentially 100%+ upside, as indicated by at least one analyst’s $4 price target).
We acknowledge it’s a binary, but we’ve accepted that risk. The reward, if realized, would likely make MIST the star of our portfolio. We placed a **stop at $1.70** to cap downside (roughly a 10–15% loss limit) in case of a surprise negative outcome (e.g., another delay or rejection).
So far, MIST’s stock has been stable – a sign that the market is waiting. We see that as neither bullish nor bearish, just equilibrium.
**This week’s update:** No new news on MIST, which we interpret as everything proceeding normally with the review. The stock holding in the high $1.80s is fine.
**Plan:** Hold through the FDA decision, as the risk/reward is still strongly in our favor. We’re effectively in “calm before the storm” mode – and we’re ready for potentially big news by the next few weeks.
**Summary:** MIST encapsulates our willingness to take a calculated high-risk shot for a high payoff, with controls in place (stop-loss) to prevent devastation.
---
### 2. Aytu BioPharma (AYTU)
**Thesis:** AYTU is a small-cap specialty pharma that we view as a deep value with a catalyst. It’s launching **EXXUA™ (gepirone ER)**, an FDA-approved novel antidepressant.
Why is EXXUA special? It’s the first antidepressant in decades with a new mechanism (5-HT1A receptor partial agonist) and notably lacks the sexual side effects that come with SSRIs and SNRIs. Sexual dysfunction from antidepressants is a huge issue leading to poor adherence.
EXXUA could carve out a meaningful niche in the ~$22 billion US depression market, even if only as a second-line or for patients who can’t tolerate SSRIs. AYTU’s market cap is only ~$22M, which means the market is essentially assigning almost no credit to EXXUA’s potential.
We think this is an overreaction to AYTU’s past (they’ve had a history of small products and dilution). Now, however, they have fresh funding (**~$16M raised at $1.50 in June**, with major healthcare funds participating) and an existing sales force (from their ADHD products) to leverage for EXXUA’s launch.
Our thesis: as EXXUA launches (**target: Q4 2025**), investors will start to see that AYTU could generate significant revenue in 2026 and beyond, making the current valuation look absurdly low. Even a path to $10M–$20M in annual sales could justify multiples of the current price.
**This week’s update:** AYTU stock stayed around $2.30, which is fine. The company announced a **patent term extension to 2030 for EXXUA**, securing longer exclusivity. Management reiterated the launch is on track and they’re engaging investors. No negatives emerged.
**Risks:** Launch execution (since this is a new kind of therapy, though it’s a pill, not a hard sell like psychedelics). AYTU might need more capital in late 2024 if revenues ramp slowly, but near-term they should be fine.
**Stop-loss:** $1.80.
**Summary:** AYTU offers a more gradual, fundamentally driven upside that complements our binary picks. We like that it has real revenue from other products and isn’t purely story-driven. We expect by the end of the experiment, as EXXUA hits the market, AYTU’s stock will be higher. We’ll remain patient unless something materially threatens our thesis (none so far).
---
### 3. Peraso (PRSO)
**Thesis:** PRSO is our new addition, representing a special situation: an imminent takeover possibility. PRSO is a tiny tech company (semiconductor IP for wireless) that, on its own, was struggling – but it has become a target of interest by a private company, **Mobix Labs**.
Our thesis: there’s a high likelihood that Peraso will be acquired or merge at a premium soon. Mobix’s **all-cash offer of $1.30/share in June** and their persistence (they went public with it and then got Peraso to sign an NDA in October) suggests serious intent.
We suspect that either Mobix will raise its offer or Peraso, after shopping around, might agree to a deal. The stock trading above $1.30 (around $1.40s) indicates the market also expects a higher final price or outcome.
If no deal happens, PRSO likely falls, but we’ve mitigated that with a stop.
**Why we like it:** It’s a pure, time-bound catalyst, uncorrelated to our other holdings. PRSO could give us a win (~+20%) regardless of what happens with MIST or AYTU – attractive for balancing risk.
**This week’s update:** We initiated the position. As of Oct 30, they are in **confidential talks**, an improvement from an unsolicited offer a month ago. Momentum is positive.
**Risks:** Talks could fall apart, or no higher bid emerges. If Mobix walks away, the stock could drop hard. Even if a deal is agreed, it might not close by Dec 27 (that’s fine – we just need the announcement).
**Summary:** PRSO offers a high probability of a controlled ~10–30% gain on a deal announcement, versus limited downside if it fails. It diversifies our catalysts by adding a corporate action play rather than a biotech one.
---
### Portfolio-Level Summary
Our portfolio now has three independent shots on goal:
1. **Regulatory Approval (MIST)** – binary event that could multiply the position.
2. **Commercial Success (AYTU)** – gradual catalyst, revaluation story.
3. **Acquisition (PRSO)** – binary event likely to yield a one-time pop.
Each carries significant upside potential:
- MIST: could double or more on approval (PSVT market unmet; contingent $75M financing upon approval secures future).
- AYTU: could realistically double if EXXUA launch feedback is good.
- PRSO: might gain 20–50% if a deal is announced.
Risk controls are in place for each (stop-losses, position sizing). Even if one fails, the portfolio can survive to benefit from others.
We acknowledge that our strategy is aggressive—but it must be to catch up to the S&P. It’s a **calculated aggression**, focusing on known catalysts within our timeframe.
---
### Looking Ahead (Next Week and Final Weeks)
We’ll refine our theses as events unfold:
- **MIST:** focus shifts to potential partial profit-taking before/after PDUFA.
- **AYTU:** look for early indicators of EXXUA market acceptance.
- **PRSO:** monitor news; longer talks might indicate details being finalized.
**Summary:**
We’re entering the final phase of this experiment with a focused, catalyst-rich portfolio.
- MIST: Transformative FDA therapy potential — holding for binary win, tightly controlling downside.
- AYTU: Launch of a novel drug in a huge market — holding for revaluation, moderate downside due to real revenue.
- PRSO: Likely takeover target — holding for deal announcement, very limited downside.
Each thesis is independent, ideal for diversification. Success or failure of one should not directly impact the others. We have multiple shots for a strong finish.
With these adjustments and ongoing monitoring, we believe the portfolio is optimized for **risk-adjusted returns**. We’ve respected all rules and constraints and are prepared to adapt quickly as news hits.
Now, we let our theses play out—with confidence in our research and a clear plan for whatever comes next.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 2 Summary.md
================================================
### Recommendation: Buy IINN (Inspira Technologies) — Top Pick for H2 2025
**Capital Deployed:** ~$32.13 for 20 shares
**Stop-Loss Set:** $1.10
**Thesis Summary:**
- **Strong Revenue Catalyst:** $22.5M purchase order secured, with delivery in 2025, and further deals in negotiation. This is a real, unfolding revenue event, not a speculative future bet.
- **High Upside Potential:** From ~$1.50, the stock could plausibly double by year-end. Valuation remains cheap vs. peers (~0.9× sales), and additional contracts could re-rate the stock significantly.
- **Manageable Risk:** FDA-cleared product reduces regulatory uncertainty. Contract revenue lowers dilution risk. Stop-loss caps downside at ~25–30%.
- **Superior Risk/Reward:** Compared to other candidates (e.g. GRIL, MULN, AZTR, INBS), IINN offers multiple upcoming catalysts with less binary risk.
**Trade Plan:**
- Buy 20 shares at ~$1.50
- Maintain stop-loss at $1.10
- Monitor Q3 earnings (Nov) and further contract announcements
- Consider trailing stop if shares rise sharply
**Conclusion:**
IINN offers a rare mix of near-term revenue, expanding opportunity, and a credible path to sustained gains — making it the top candidate for deploying the remaining capital. This is a calculated, high-conviction position aimed at maximizing returns by year-end.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 20 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
## Overview
The portfolio consists of **three high-conviction, catalyst-driven biotech positions** — each designed to balance **risk, reward, and diversification** across regulatory, clinical, and commercial catalysts.
The goal: **close the performance gap vs. the S&P 500 by year-end** through asymmetric upside potential.
---
## 1. Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) – High-Conviction FDA Approval Play
**Thesis:**
- Awaiting **FDA approval (PDUFA date: Dec 13, 2025)** for *etripamil (Cardamyst)* — a nasal spray for **Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia (PSVT)**.
- Would be the **first-ever at-home treatment** for PSVT, reducing ER visits and improving quality of life.
- Previous FDA issues were **manufacturing-related**, not efficacy/safety. Issues now resolved.
**Upside Potential:**
- Approval could **double the stock (+100% or more)** to ~$3–4.
- $75M financing lined up post-approval ensures funding for commercialization.
**Risk Management:**
- **Stop-loss in place** to cap downside on unexpected FDA rejection/delay.
- Binary, high-conviction bet — **“swing-for-the-fences” catalyst** independent of market conditions.
**Why We Like It:**
- Imminent and definitive catalyst with clear timeline.
- Provides true diversification vs. macro-driven market moves.
---
## 2. VistaGen Therapeutics (VTGN) – Binary Clinical Trial Catalyst in CNS
**Thesis:**
- Lead drug *fasedienol (PH94B)* is a **pherine nasal spray** for **Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD)** — a novel, on-demand therapy.
- Prior Phase 3 failures (2022) were due to placebo effects; **new trial (PALISADE-3)** redesigned for clearer results using the **public speaking challenge test**.
- **Top-line data expected Q4 2025**.
**Upside Potential:**
- Positive data could **double or more the stock (~$8+)** and revive the program.
- Potential for **partnerships or acquisition** by larger pharma.
**Downside Risks:**
- Failed trial could collapse thesis and valuation (down to cash value).
- Stop-loss in place to mitigate but cannot fully protect from gap-downs.
**Why We Like It:**
- Independent from MIST and AYTU (diversified risk).
- Strong cash position pre-results, avoiding dilution risk.
- Pure **high-upside clinical catalyst** with short-term timeline.
---
## 3. Aytu BioPharma (AYTU) – Undervalued Commercial Launch with Steady Upside
**Thesis:**
- Aytu recently launched **EXXUA™ (gepirone ER)** for **Major Depressive Disorder (MDD)**, approved August 2025.
- First new antidepressant mechanism in decades; **does not cause sexual dysfunction**, a key differentiator from SSRIs/SNRIs.
- Market cap only ~$20M, despite large addressable market (20M+ MDD patients).
- Recent $16M raise and patent extension (to 2030) strengthen position.
**Upside Potential:**
- Modest success could lift valuation to $40M+ (stock $4).
- Potential +30–50% move on strong launch milestones.
**Risk Management:**
- **Stop set near $1.60** to limit downside.
- Not binary — product already FDA approved, risk lies in execution and sales ramp.
**Why We Like It:**
- Provides **stability and balance** to a catalyst-heavy portfolio.
- Multiple near-term catalysts (launch updates, Nov 13 financials).
- Low float and institutional floor around $1.50 add support.
---
## Portfolio-Level Summary
We have constructed a **focused, catalyst-rich portfolio of three positions**, each with independent drivers:
- **Milestone (MIST):** Regulatory catalyst (FDA decision). Binary outcome, very high reward.
Stop-loss in place; could double on approval.
- **VistaGen (VTGN):** Clinical catalyst (Phase 3 results). Binary outcome, high reward.
Provides a second independent “shot on goal.”
- **Aytu (AYTU):** Commercial catalyst (product launch). Gradual, lower risk, steady upside.
Adds stability and diversification.
**Common Themes:**
- All are **micro-cap healthcare stocks** with near-term catalysts.
- Portfolio designed for **asymmetric payoff** — controlled downside, large potential upside.
- Timelines align:
- **MIST:** Mid-December FDA decision
- **VTGN:** Q4 2025 trial readout
- **AYTU:** Ongoing launch updates through December
**Downside Considerations:**
- Stop-losses set to limit catastrophic losses.
- Portfolio can withstand one major failure; AYTU provides cushion.
**Upside Scenarios:**
- One success (MIST or VTGN) + modest AYTU gain could match or beat the S&P 500.
- Two successes could **triple portfolio value** (best-case).
---
## Conclusion
This portfolio is **optimized for risk-adjusted return** in the final stretch.
Three independent catalysts — regulatory (MIST), clinical (VTGN), and commercial (AYTU) — provide multiple chances for strong outperformance.
Each position has clear risk controls, upside drivers, and a defined timeline.
Execution discipline and a bit of luck could yield a **strong finish vs. the S&P 500**.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 21 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
In conclusion, our portfolio is now streamlined to three high-conviction, catalyst-driven biotechs, each
poised for a potentially game-changing event in the coming weeks. This concentrated strategy is intentional –
we’re swinging for an outsized finish to close the performance gap with the S&P 500 by year-end. Below is
a brief recap of each position’s thesis and the rationale behind our moves:
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
We continue to back MIST as our FDA approval play. The thesis remains that etripamil nasal spray will likely
win FDA approval by the Dec 13 PDUFA date, given strong clinical data and resolved manufacturing issues.
If approved, MIST could double or more (analysts target ~$3.75, nearly +88% upside). Our confidence is
reinforced by the company’s preparedness (funding and launch plans in place) and the significant unmet need
in PSVT (first at-home treatment). We are holding through the decision, as the risk-reward is extremely favorable.
A successful approval should dramatically boost our portfolio (MIST is ~40% weight now), while a failure,
though damaging, is something we’ve mitigated with a stop and by not over-weighting beyond our original stake.
**Thesis:** High probability of FDA approval unlocking substantial value.
## VistaGen Therapeutics (VTGN)
The thesis for VTGN is unchanged: it’s a binary Phase 3 catalyst in CNS that offers a second shot at a big win.
Fasedienol’s Phase 3 readout for acute treatment of Social Anxiety Disorder is expected by end of Q4. We believe
changes made after earlier trials (which were confounded by placebo effects) give this new trial a real chance
of success. VistaGen’s strong cash position means even in a downside scenario, it survives to regroup (limiting
total downside).
Upside on success could easily be +100% or more, as a positive result would revive the program’s value and
could attract partners or acquirers. Holding VTGN diversifies our risk – it’s uncorrelated with MIST’s outcome –
and provides another potential catalyst to propel our portfolio upward.
**Thesis:** Redesigned Phase 3 could surprise to the upside; any success would be a pivotal turnaround for the stock.
## Sellas Life Sciences (SLS)
Our new addition’s thesis is a classic high-reward oncology gamble: SLS’s Phase 3 REGAL trial in AML is nearing
its final analysis (anticipated imminently). The therapy (GPS vaccine) targets a hard-to-treat scenario (maintaining
remission in AML), and if it significantly extends survival, Sellas could become a very valuable company overnight.
We were impressed by the interim data monitoring outcome (no safety issues, continue trial), which suggests no
early futility. Insiders and KOLs also showed optimism at a recent R&D day. By investing in SLS, we’ve added a third
independent catalyst: success here does not depend on broader market conditions or on our other stocks’ success.
It simply hinges on trial results.
The risk is high – a negative outcome could cut the stock in half (or worse temporarily). However, the company’s
~$73M cash position provides cushion and potential for recovery even if the trial fails (they have other programs).
We sized SLS reasonably (~27% of the portfolio) so no single outcome can make or break us, but it can contribute
significantly.
**Thesis:** Binary event with asymmetrical upside; a bet that Sellas’s immunotherapy will show a survival benefit
in AML, potentially re-rating the stock substantially.
## Aytu BioPharma (AYTU) – Exited
We decided to fully exit AYTU this week, converting it to cash for the SLS purchase. The thesis for AYTU (an
undervalued commercial-stage pharma with a novel antidepressant) is still valid long-term, but mismatched to our
timeframe. Exxua’s launch will take a few quarters to show in earnings, and any stock appreciation will likely be
gradual.
With only ~5 weeks left in our experiment, we redirected capital to immediate catalysts. Our small profit on AYTU
indicates stabilization, but we traded stability for higher potential returns. This raises risk, as we no longer have a
steady position, but one or two big wins from MIST/VTGN/SLS can far outweigh AYTU’s expected near-term gains.
**Summary of rationale:** We let go of AYTU’s modest prospects to double down on catalyst-driven alpha.
## Next Week Outlook
Going into Week 22, our portfolio is entirely catalyst-centric. Performance will be quiet until news hits, but when it
hits, it could be dramatic. This strategy introduces significant volatility – any single failure could hurt the portfolio
in the short term. However, a single success could more than make up for it, and multiple successes would be
spectacular.
We’ve essentially positioned the portfolio with multiple “lottery tickets” backed by data-driven rationale, not pure
speculation. Stops and diversification help control risk in this high-stakes approach.
## Summary
By concentrating on three independent biotech catalysts (MIST FDA approval, VTGN Phase 3 results, SLS Phase 3
results), we maximize the probability of a significant positive event in the coming weeks. Each stock carries the
potential for large upside (doubling or more) on good news.
We have taken steps to limit downside (stops, reasonable sizing, choosing companies with cash buffers). This
focused, catalyst-driven plan aligns with our mandate to optimize risk-adjusted return – now tilted more toward
“return” given our performance gap.
## Thesis Summary
We’ve repositioned for an “all or nothing” finale: either our research pays off with one or more big wins, or we fall
short knowing we gave the portfolio the best possible chance at a comeback. MIST’s regulatory outcome, VTGN’s
trial redemption, and SLS’s oncology breakthrough each have game-changing potential. We will execute with
discipline and adapt as news develops. The coming weeks will be decisive, and we are prepared for the range of
outcomes.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 22 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
As we enter Week 23, our portfolio remains a concentrated bet on biotech catalysts. Below is a brief recap of each
position’s thesis (updated with any new insights from this week’s research), our game plan for each, and a
reflection on why we believe these are the best shots to achieve a strong finish. We also summarize our rationale
for maintaining the current portfolio composition and any orders placed:
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Catalyst:** FDA decision (PDUFA) on Dec 13.
We are holding MIST (14 shares, ~41% allocation) as our top conviction play. **Thesis:** We believe MIST’s PSVT nasal spray
(etripamil) will secure FDA approval, based on robust Phase 3 efficacy (significantly higher conversion
to normal heart rhythm vs placebo) and a resolved manufacturing issue from the previous CRL. The
company’s recent update reinforced that they are fully prepared for approval and launch – they even
referenced being “optimistic and excited” approaching the PDUFA date . **Upside could be
substantial:** analysts peg fair value in the mid-$3s (nearly a double from current levels), and
being the first at-home treatment in PSVT, the market might assign even higher value on approval.
**New info:** MIST raised additional cash and would get a $75M milestone on approval ,
meaning it won’t need dilutive financing for the launch – a very positive sign for post-approval valuation.
**Plan:** Ride through the FDA decision. If approval, seize profits (we expect a sharp spike
given micro-cap status + high unmet need). If rejection, our downside is limited by the stop. In
summary, MIST remains a high-probability, high-impact play – exactly the kind of opportunity we want at
this stage.
## VistaGen Therapeutics (VTGN)
**Catalyst:** Phase 3 trial (PALISADE-3) results for social anxiety disorder
by end of Q4.
We continue to hold VTGN (6 shares, ~34% allocation). **Thesis:** This is a classic
comeback story – VTGN’s nasal spray for acute social anxiety (fasedienol) failed earlier trials due to
placebo responses, but the company learned from that and redesigned this Phase 3 with a novel
public speaking challenge endpoint to better demonstrate the drug’s effect. If successful, fasedienol
could be the breakthrough for social anxiety, a huge market with no acute treatment currently. We
estimate the stock could more than double on positive data (given the prior failure, the market is
skeptical, but success would flip the script dramatically – possibly bringing partnership offers or at
least a re-rating to reflect a viable CNS asset).
**New info:** As of early November, VTGN completed the
trial and reaffirmed data by year-end . They also signaled plans for an NDA in mid-2026 ,
implying confidence. Their cash position is strong enough that even in a downside scenario (if the
trial disappoints), the company isn’t facing immediate distress – they can pivot to other programs,
which might cushion the stock somewhat.
**Plan:** Hold through data. This position diversifies our
catalyst risk (it’s CNS vs. MIST’s cardiovascular vs. SLS’s oncology). We maintain a stop at $3.20 to
guard against a collapse on bad news, but otherwise we’re giving VTGN the opportunity to deliver
the kind of outsized return we need. **Bottom line:** VTGN offers a binary but potentially portfoliotransforming catalyst, and our research this week only strengthened our optimism that the trial design
fixes could yield a surprise win.
## SELLAS Life Sciences (SLS)
**Catalyst:** Phase 3 REGAL trial final analysis (survival in AML) expected
around year-end.
We are holding SLS (13 shares, ~25% allocation) as our third “lottery ticket.” **Thesis:**
SLS’s GPS vaccine is attempting something never done – meaningfully prolong survival in AML
patients in second remission. It’s high-risk, but interim looks were encouraging (the IDMC in August
recommended to continue the trial with no modifications , suggesting no glaring futility signal). If REGAL is positive, SLS could re-rate massively: not only would GPS become a valuable late-stage
asset (attracting partner or acquirer interest), but SELLAS’s other program (SLS009, a CDK9 inhibitor)
also has demonstrated promising data, meaning the company could suddenly have two valuable
assets. **In a success scenario, multi-bagger returns (stock from ~$1.50 to $5+ range) are conceivable.**
**New info:** In Q3 updates, SELLAS announced it bolstered cash (now ~$73M total) ,
which ensures they can operate well into 2026 – so even if REGAL fails, they won’t be bankrupt (they’d pivot
to SLS009, etc.), which could mean the stock might not go to penny-stock levels; and if REGAL
succeeds, they have the cash to push toward approval. Also, we noted insiders and KOLs expressing
“genuine enthusiasm” at the R&D day – while that’s anecdotal, it’s a positive sentiment indicator.
**Plan:** This is our smallest position due to the high uncertainty, but we’re fully prepared to hold
through the readout. We have a tight stop to limit a blow-up risk. If the news is good, we’ll take profit
systematically because small biotech can be volatile even after good news (we’d expect to sell into
strength, possibly keeping a tiny stub if we see longer-term value, but likely we’ll realize gains). In
summary, SLS is the highest risk of the bunch, but it’s a deliberate inclusion to give us a third independent
chance at a game-changing win. The reward-to-risk still seems favorable given the stock’s low price and
our sizing of the position.
# Portfolio-Level Thesis
Our portfolio as a whole is an “all or nothing” catalyst strategy. We
acknowledge that we’ve concentrated into three biotech events, which means our fate is less about
market conditions and almost entirely about the outcomes of these specific milestones. The
rationale is that we’re currently behind the benchmark (S&P 500) by a considerable margin【user’s
data】, and with only a few weeks left, playing it safe won’t catch up. We need one or more big
wins. Each stock in our portfolio has the potential to double (or more) on good news. They are
uncorrelated events – an FDA approval, a CNS trial result, an oncology trial result – so the probability
that all fail is lower than the probability that at least one succeeds. One success could lift the
portfolio significantly; two or three could make for a spectacular finish. We have mitigated risk where
we can (position sizing, stop losses, choosing companies with enough cash to survive setbacks), but
we intentionally accept higher volatility now. We have not added any new positions this week
because none matched the immediacy and upside of what we already hold.
# Execution and Orders Summary
No new buy/sell orders were placed, other than adjusting stop-
loss orders. This is reflective of our confidence in the current holdings. We did adjust MIST’s stop
from $1.50 to $1.60 to secure some gains (given the stock’s rise) while still giving it breathing room.
For VTGN and SLS, stops remain as-is. We’ll re-evaluate stops dynamically as prices move. By not
trimming or selling anything now, we ensure we have maximum skin in the game for each catalyst.
Our view is that the portfolio’s upside capture is more important at this juncture than short-term
downside avoidance – provided we have disaster stops in place, which we do.
# Next Week Preview
By the end of Week 23 or during Week 24, we may have the result for SLS (since it’s
“any day” timing). We are prepared to act on that immediately as per our plan – cut losses or take profit.
MIST’s decision will come in Week 24’s window (mid-week), so in the next weekly report we will likely be
discussing how we handled that binary event. VTGN’s readout might come in the final week or so. The
sequence of these events actually provides a bit of a natural hedge: they are spaced such that we can
potentially redeploy capital from one outcome to the next if needed (e.g., if SLS fails, its remaining funds
might bolster VTGN or MIST if those haven’t hit yet; if SLS succeeds big, we might lock in and increase our
cash or even add to VTGN ahead of its result). We will make those tactical decisions as news comes.
# Thesis Confidence
Overall, we are heading into these catalysts with confidence grounded in research:
- MIST: High probability, data-driven bet on an FDA win in a well-studied indication.
- VTGN: Reasonable probability, improved trial design and strong scientific rationale, with huge upside if it pans out.
- SLS: Uncertain probability (as any cancer immunotherapy is), but the payoff would be massive and the company
has set itself up well (financially and scientifically) for either outcome.
By maintaining our positions and strategy, we ensure that if our research was correct, we will reap the
rewards. If we’re wrong, our risk measures should prevent catastrophic loss of capital.
In summary, we have a clear line of sight on three major catalysts in the coming weeks. Our portfolio is
positioned to capitalize on these with no distractions. We have laid out exact contingency plans and will
execute them with discipline. The next week will be largely about monitoring and reacting, as the heavy
lifting in terms of positioning is already done. We enter this critical phase with a mixture of caution (via stops) and optimism (via conviction to hold through volatility). Now it’s up to the outcomes – and we’re as
ready as we can be to manage whatever comes.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 23 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
As we head into Week 24, our portfolio remains an all-or-nothing biotech catalyst play. Below is a brief recap of each position’s thesis, recent developments, and our confidence level, which reinforces why we are sticking to this strategy:
---
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
**Thesis:**
MIST’s nasal spray (etripamil) for PSVT has a high likelihood of FDA approval on Dec 13. The Phase 3 efficacy was strong (significantly higher conversion to normal heart rhythm vs placebo), and manufacturing issues from the prior CRL have been resolved. The company’s tone is optimistic, and importantly they secured non-dilutive funding (a $75M milestone payment upon approval), which means they can launch without an imminent cash crunch.
**Recent Update:**
The stock has climbed into the high-$2s as the decision nears, indicating investor anticipation. No negative signals emerged in our research – if anything, the Q3 update bolstered confidence (management “excited” for the PDUFA).
**Catalyst Outlook:**
We are *highly confident* in approval. The unmet need (at-home PSVT treatment) and clean data support it.
- **Upside:** Estimated stock move to **$3.50–$4.50** on approval (analyst avg target $6+).
- **Downside:** Rejection could halve the stock or worse; however, our stop and ~$1.50/share cash on hand provide some backstop.
**Plan:**
Hold through the decision. If approval, sell most/all into the post-news rally (~100% gain from entry). If rejection, rely on stop-loss.
**Thesis Confidence:** **Very high** – top play; favorable risk/reward.
---
## VistaGen Therapeutics (VTGN)
**Thesis:**
VTGN is attempting a comeback with its Phase 3 PALISADE-3 trial for acute treatment of Social Anxiety Disorder. After a prior Phase 3 failed in 2022 due to placebo issues, VTGN redesigned the trial using a public-speaking challenge and stricter enrollment to reduce placebo responders. This gives PALISADE-3 a fair shot at success.
If positive, fasedienol becomes the first fast-acting therapy for social anxiety – a huge market. The stock could double or more.
**Recent Update:**
Management reiterated data by end of 2025 and discussed NDA plans for mid-2026. They have **~$77M cash**, enough to reach NDA. Stock rising ~20% recently to ~$4.90, possibly signaling optimism/speculation.
**Catalyst Outlook:**
We assign a **~50/50 chance of success**.
- **Upside:** Estimated **$8–$10**.
- **Downside:** Failure could mean ~$2 or lower; stop-loss triggers around $3.20.
**Plan:**
Hold through data. Use stop-loss if it fails. On success, sell half on spike, and half with trailing stop.
**Thesis Confidence:** **High** – binary, but improved design + confident management = worthwhile gamble.
---
## SELLAS Life Sciences (SLS)
**Thesis:**
SLS is the moonshot. GPS (cancer vaccine) in the Phase 3 REGAL trial seeks to show overall survival benefit in AML – very ambitious, historically low odds. But interim analysis did **not** halt for futility, suggesting data weren’t terrible.
If successful, the stock could **explode** (to $4–$5+, from ~$1.60). A win would validate GPS and boost SLS009 (CDK9 inhibitor with positive Phase 2 data at ASH).
**Recent Update:**
SLS raised substantial cash via warrants, ending Q3 with **~$73M**. Even if REGAL fails, the company can pivot; stock may not collapse to pennies. Recent R&D day had KOL “genuine enthusiasm.” Stock uptick indicates some positioning ahead of data.
**Catalyst Outlook:**
Low probability, very high payoff.
- **Upside:** 2–3x or more.
- **Downside:** 50%+ loss (softened by cash + stop-loss).
**Plan:**
Hold through outcome (imminent). If good, sell most quickly. Possibly keep a tiny lotto piece. If bad, stop-loss manages damage.
**Thesis Confidence:** **Moderate** – hopeful but realistic. No red flags in research.
---
# Big Picture (Portfolio-Level Thesis)
The portfolio is intentionally concentrated in **three independent biotech catalysts**. This pivot was deliberate to attempt a comeback vs the benchmark.
By betting on three uncorrelated binary events:
- **One win** can narrow the gap.
- **Two wins** could potentially beat the S&P outright.
Trade-off = high volatility & drawdown risk (~50% max drawdown so far).
But we control risk through stops and sizing. While not hedged, diversification exists via independent catalysts.
We’ve positioned for **multi-bagger potential** while limiting catastrophic downside. No hedges were added because they’d dilute upside.
We now enter the most exciting (and nerve-wracking) phase:
- **MIST** – crown jewel; highest probability.
- **VTGN** – logical rebound with asymmetric upside.
- **SLS** – high-risk moonshot with multi-bagger potential.
We have clear plans for all outcomes. The next week or two likely determine the final experiment outcome.
---
# Confirm Cash and Constraints
**Cash Utilization:**
After implementing orders, cash is **$0.85**. Fully invested. No new cash used. All planned transactions use existing capital only.
**Compliance with Trading Rules:**
1. **No leverage or shorts** – only long equity.
2. All holdings are **U.S. micro-caps < $300M** (MIST ~$273M; VTGN ~$190M; SLS ~$231M).
3. **Full shares only**; all orders are integers.
4. **Liquidity safe** – trades are tiny vs ADV.
5. **Risk controls** – stop-loss orders in place; no breaches.
6. **Execution policy** – standard limit/stop behavior, DAY for discretionary, GTC for stops.
7. **Cadence** – research and planning performed for this week; mid-week actions limited to reacting to catalysts per preset plans.
**Final Portfolio Snapshot (Week 24):**
- **14 MIST**
- **6 VTGN**
- **13 SLS**
- **$0.85 cash**
All constraints satisfied. We are now in “wait for catalysts” mode with risk controls active.
We will adhere to the plan strictly. Any deviation will be justified. Portfolio is primed for the catalyst outcomes.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 24 Summary.md
================================================
# Big Picture – Portfolio-Level Thesis
We deliberately constructed the portfolio in recent weeks as a concentrated bet on three independent
biotech catalysts. This was a pivot away from a more diversified approach earlier in the experiment, driven
by the need to attempt a dramatic catch-up to the benchmark (we’re currently behind the S&P 500 by a
significant margin). The underlying logic is:
These catalyst outcomes are uncorrelated with each other (heart drug approval, anxiety drug trial,
cancer vaccine trial – totally different indications and mechanisms). Thus, they represent a form of
diversification by event. The success or failure of one does not influence the others.
By focusing on binary events, we set up the possibility of large upside moves. A single biotech win
can double or triple a stock overnight.
The trade-off is high volatility and downside risk, which we have seen (our portfolio saw ~-50%
drawdown at one point). However, we mitigated risk by using stop-losses and by sizing – we didn’t
“go all in” on any one play but spread across three.
We recognized that to have any shot at beating the S&P by year-end after earlier losses, we needed
some multi-bagger opportunities. Simply holding stable stocks wouldn’t cut it in the time
remaining. This strategy, while risky, was aimed at that asymmetric payoff.
At a portfolio level, the outcomes we envision: - One big win out of three could narrow the performance
gap substantially. For instance, if MIST alone doubles on approval while the others tread water or hit stops,
our portfolio value would jump significantly (likely bringing us close to breakeven vs. starting $100, if not
above). - Two wins (say MIST and VTGN both succeed) could potentially push the portfolio ahead of the
S&P 500. The math: a 100% gain on MIST and, say, 80-100% gain on VTGN would more than compensate for
maybe a 50% loss on SLS. That scenario could vault the portfolio to new highs. - All three winning is the
grand-slam scenario (rare, but not impossible) that would far exceed the benchmark. Conversely, zero wins
would mean we take stops on all and likely end well below the benchmark – essentially the gamble doesn’t
pay off.
We understand this approach is akin to a venture capital style or hedge-fund style swing for the fences. It’s
not a conventional steady strategy. But given the context (an experiment with a fixed end date and us
trailing), it was a calculated decision. Importantly, we set it up so that even in a total bust, the portfolio
survives (thanks to stops, we’d still have some cash left to end with something like ~$50-$60 if all failed,
rather than $0).
We also consciously decided not to hedge these catalyst plays with, say, index shorts or diversified longs,
because that would dilute the upside. The whole point was to maximize the impact of any wins. We accept
the downside as the cost.
Now, as we enter what is likely the climax of this experiment, the portfolio is positioned for potentially
wild swings. We have plans in place for either outcome of each event. The next two weeks (Week 24 and 25)
will likely determine the final outcome.
In summary, our portfolio-level thesis is: concentrate risk into a few uncorrelated high-impact bets, manage the
downside with stops, and let the upside run. This gives us a fighting chance to outperform dramatically, at the
cost of higher volatility – a risk we chose knowingly.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 25 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
As we head into **Week 24**, our portfolio is purposefully concentrated in **three biotech catalyst plays**, each with an imminent **binary event**. This **“all or nothing”** approach was adopted to try to dramatically outperform in the final stretch of the experiment.
Below is a recap of each position’s **thesis, recent developments, and game plan**, reinforcing why we are holding through their catalysts.
---
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)
### Catalyst / Thesis
MIST’s novel nasal spray **etripamil** (brand: **CARDAMYST**) for treating **paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT)** is awaiting FDA approval on **Dec 13, 2025**. Our thesis is that approval is **highly likely**.
Key points:
- Phase 3 data showed **statistically significant conversion to normal rhythm vs placebo**
- First **at-home, fast-acting therapy** for PSVT (patients currently often require ER visits)
- Prior 2021 CRL was due to **manufacturing issues**, which have since been resolved
- NDA accepted; **no AdCom required**
- Strong balance sheet: **$82M+ cash** (Q3) plus a **$75M approval milestone**, reducing financing risk
### Recent Developments
- Stock rallied into the **high $2s** (52-week high $2.77; closed $2.64 on Dec 4)
- Management tone: **“optimistic and excited”** ahead of PDUFA
- New AHA analyses showed **consistent efficacy across subgroups**
- Mentioned in updated **ACLS guidelines** as a potential future tool
- No safety issues or negative FDA signals publicly
- Analyst targets generally in the **mid-single digits**, well above current price
### Catalyst Outlook
We are **highly confident** in a positive outcome. Approval would be the **first new PSVT drug in decades**, transforming MIST into a commercial-stage company overnight.
#### Upside Scenario
- Expected move: **$3.50–$4.50** immediately (≈50–70% gain)
- From our **$1.75 entry**, this implies **~100%+ return**
- Aggressive analysts cite **$6–$7** over 12 months
#### Downside Scenario
- Surprise CRL could drop stock **50–60%** toward ~$1
- ~$1.50/share in cash provides a backstop
- **Stop-loss at $1.60** limits downside to a small loss (~$0.15/share)
### Plan
- **Hold through FDA decision**
- Sell most or all shares into post-approval rally
- If rejected, stop-loss caps losses
### Thesis Confidence
**Very High.** Strong data, clear unmet need, resolved prior issues, and milestone financing suggest high approval odds. This is our **top conviction play**.
---
## VistaGen Therapeutics (VTGN)
### Catalyst / Thesis
VTGN is awaiting **Phase 3 (PALISADE-3)** results for **fasedienol (PH94B)** in **Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD)**.
Key points:
- Trial redesigned to fix placebo issues from prior failed Phase 3
- Uses more realistic public-speaking challenge and stricter enrollment
- Potential **first fast-acting, as-needed SAD treatment**
- Large unmet market; current options are SSRIs or off-label benzos
- Data expected **by end of 2025**
### Recent Developments
- Management confirmed topline data timing and **NDA target mid-2026** if successful
- **$77.2M cash** (as of 9/30/25), sufficient to reach NDA
- Stock up ~20% in two weeks (**mid-$3s to ~$4.30–$4.40**)
- Rising volume (~1M shares/day vs ~0.6M previously)
- Added board member with FDA approval experience (**Paul Edick**)
- No safety issues or delays reported
### Catalyst Outlook
We assign **~50/50 probability**. CNS trials are difficult, but the **risk/reward is highly asymmetric**.
#### Upside Scenario
- Potential move to **$8–$10/share**
- At $8, market cap would still be only ~$350–$400M
- Some analysts could revive **teen-level targets**
- Plan to sell in stages to capture euphoria and follow-through
#### Downside Scenario
- Failure likely drops stock to **$2–$3**
- Cash value (~$1.95/share) provides partial floor
- **Stop-loss at $3.20** limits loss to ~10–15%
### Plan
- **Hold through data**
- If positive: sell ~50% on initial surge, trail stop on remainder
- If negative: stop-loss triggers, exit fully
### Thesis Confidence
**High.** While risky, trial redesign and management confidence justify the bet. Upside multiples far outweigh downside.
---
## SELLAS Life Sciences (SLS)
### Catalyst / Thesis
SLS is our **moonshot**: Phase 3 **REGAL** trial of **galinpepimut-S (GPS)** cancer vaccine in **AML second remission**.
Key points:
- Cancer vaccines historically have low success rates
- Interim analysis did **not stop for futility**
- Success would be transformative, validating a platform
- Additional asset: **CDK9 inhibitor SLS009**
Estimated probability: **~10–20%**, but with massive upside.
### Recent Developments
- Cash position strengthened to **~$73M total**
- Virtual R&D Day featured enthusiastic KOL commentary
- Positive Phase 2 data for **SLS009** presented at ASH
- Stock rose from ~$1.40 to ~$1.74 with heavy volume
- Increased speculation but also risk of “sell-the-news”
### Catalyst Outlook
A classic **low-probability, high-impact** event.
#### Upside Scenario
- Success could drive stock to **$4–$5+** (2–3x)
- $500–$600M valuation plausible on Phase 3 success
- Plan to sell most shares quickly; possibly retain a small runner
#### Downside Scenario
- Failure could drop shares **50%+** to ~$0.70–$0.90
- **Stop at $1.10**, though gap risk exists
- Absolute loss limited due to small position size
### Plan
- **Hold through readout**
- Treat as a lottery-style position
- Exit quickly on success; stop-loss on failure
- No doubling down if trial fails
### Thesis Confidence
**Moderate.** We are realistic about the odds. Encouraging signals exist, but history is against cancer vaccines. Small sizing makes the risk acceptable.
---
## Big Picture – Portfolio-Level Thesis
We intentionally pivoted to a **concentrated, catalyst-driven strategy** to attempt a late-stage catch-up to the S&P 500.
### Rationale
- Catalysts are **uncorrelated** (cardiology, psychiatry, oncology)
- Binary biotech wins can **double or triple overnight**
- Risk managed via **position sizing and stop-losses**
- Needed **multi-bagger potential** given time constraints
### Portfolio Outcome Scenarios
- **One win**: materially narrows performance gap
- **Two wins**: potential to outperform the S&P 500
- **Three wins**: grand slam outcome
- **Zero wins**: portfolio underperforms, but survives (~$50–$60 end value)
We intentionally avoided hedging to **preserve upside**, accepting volatility as the cost.
---
## Summary
Our portfolio thesis is simple but aggressive:
> **Concentrate risk into a few uncorrelated, high-impact biotech catalysts, manage downside with stops, and let upside run.**
This approach gives us a **fighting chance for dramatic outperformance**, fully acknowledging the volatility and risk involved.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 26 Summary.md
================================================
# Thesis Review Summary
As we enter the final week of this 6-month experiment, our portfolio strategy has evolved into a focused but
risk-managed stance. Below is a summary of each current position’s thesis and the rationale behind our
latest actions, as well as how the portfolio is positioned for Week 26:
---
## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST) – Approved Drug Catalyst, Now a Growth Story
**Thesis:**
MIST was our high-conviction bet on FDA approval of etripamil (Cardamyst) for PSVT, which came
to fruition on Dec 12, 2025 with a positive approval decision. This validates our thesis that etripamil’s
strong Phase 3 data and clear unmet need would lead to approval. Now the company transitions to
commercialization.
**Key points:**
- **First-in-class Product:** Cardamyst is the first self-administered therapy
for PSVT, addressing a significant patient need (avoiding ER visits for sudden tachycardia episodes). This
gives MIST a unique market position.
- **Resolved Risks:** The earlier regulatory risk is gone. Manufacturing
issues from 2021’s CRL were overcome, and no safety concerns were raised in this review. The approval
news confirmed that narrative.
- **Financial Strength:** Milestone’s balance sheet is robust – they have ~$82M
in cash and are set to receive a $75M milestone payment from RTW upon approval. This non-dilutive
financing means the upcoming drug launch is well-funded, reducing risk of near-term dilution.
- **Upside Potential:** Many analysts had price targets in the $4–$7 range pre-approval. With a ~$2.15 stock
price (market cap ~$180M), there is substantial room for the market to re-rate MIST as a revenue-generating
company. If Cardamyst sees strong uptake or if Milestone secures a partnership for broader marketing, the
stock could climb further. Also, MIST could become a takeover candidate given its niche (larger
cardiovascular players might eye Cardamyst’s niche market).
- **Recent Action & Plan:** The stock ran up into the high-$2s before approval and then settled in the low-$2s
after a “sell-the-news” bout of profit-taking. This is not unusual for small biotechs post-catalyst. We’re
holding our 14 shares because we believe the medium-term trajectory is upward as investors refocus on
sales potential. However, acknowledging that the catalyst is past and volatility might decrease, we’ve
tightened our stop to $1.80 to secure gains. We are comfortable holding through the week, expecting either
sideways or modestly bullish movement. Our thesis confidence remains very high – Milestone is
fundamentally stronger than ever after delivering on the catalyst. In the Week 26 context, MIST provides a
stable foundation with possible upside from any positive post-approval developments (e.g., analyst
upgrades or year-end biotech rally). We’ll monitor but likely just ride this position into the final tally, unless
an unforeseen event occurs.
---
## SELLAS Life Sciences (SLS) – Phase 3 Binary Event, Trimmed to “Ride Free”
**Thesis:**
SLS is our moonshot play on the Phase 3 REGAL trial of galinpepimut-S (GPS), a cancer
immunotherapy for AML in second remission. The essence of the thesis was high risk but astronomical
reward:
- **Rationale for Upside:** GPS showed promising Phase 2 results (21-month median overall survival)
and targets a common antigen (WT1) present in most AML cases. If Phase 3 is successful, GPS would
become the first maintenance therapy in CR2 AML, addressing a critical gap. The total addressable
market (including AML CR2, post-transplant, and potentially CR1) is large, and success would validate
SELLAS’s entire platform. Bulls (ourselves included) argued that the trial’s unusually long duration (still not
hitting the final event when expected) is “generally inconsistent with a control-driven outcome,” hinting
the vaccine might be extending lives. This statistical nuance gave us hope that REGAL could succeed
against the odds.
- **Current Developments:** SELLAS’s behavior has been encouraging: they have over $70M cash
(runway into 2027), which is rare for a micro-cap to be funded past a Phase 3 readout – it means even in
failure, the company isn’t immediately insolvent (some value remains via cash and their secondary asset
SLS009). They also kept a tiny headcount and engaged with potential pharma partners, indicating they
might prefer to be acquired if GPS works. Importantly, at $1.41 (our entry, ~$190M cap), the stock was
“priced as if REGAL has already failed,” according to one analysis. Even after the run to ~$2.30 (now
~$335M cap), one could argue it still only partially prices in success (since a successful GPS could justify
well over $500M cap).
- **Risk Management Move:** That said, we always knew this was a lottery ticket with maybe 15–20%
chance of success. With the stock up significantly, we made the decision to trim our position by ~62%
(8 of 13 shares) to secure our initial capital and some profit. This essentially reduces our cost-basis on
remaining shares to near $0. We can now hold the remaining 5 shares through the binary event with a
cool head, as it’s essentially house money. Our thesis is still that there is a chance for a huge win – and we
want to be there for it – but we’ve drastically limited the damage if it’s a loss.
- **Catalyst Outlook:** We expect top-line results literally any day now (the company guided final analysis by
year-end). The outcomes are extreme:
- **If REGAL is Positive:** SLS could gap up 100%+ (we foresee a move to at least ~$4–$5 in the short
term, possibly higher if buyout speculation kicks in). Even with only 5 shares, that would be a
meaningful gain for us. The thesis in that scenario would shift to evaluating exit vs. hold: likely we’d
take most profits quickly, as such events often see volatility and we’d be near experiment end. But it
would validate the “moonshot” approach.
- **If REGAL is Negative:** SLS likely collapses toward cash value (~$0.70–$0.90). With just 5 shares,
our remaining exposure is very small (we’d lose maybe ~$8 at worst, which we can tolerate). We
have a stop at $1.10, but as noted, in a failure it might open well below that. We’re mentally prepared
for this outcome too – it’s the price of playing biotech lotto. Our prior trim means overall the SLS trade
would still net out close to breakeven or a slight gain even if the last bit goes to near $0.
- **Thesis Confidence:** Moderate (but highly binary). We’re more optimistic than when we first bought
(the extended survival and stock’s strength improve our confidence), but we remain realistic: cancer
vaccines have historically struggled, and this is essentially a coin flip. By adjusting our position size,
we’ve aligned our risk with that reality while keeping the thesis alive. This week SLS is the make-or-break
catalyst for potentially catching up to the benchmark – it’s the wild card that could either narrow the
performance gap dramatically or simply fizzle out. Our actions reflect a disciplined way to engage with
this thesis: partake in the upside, but not bet the farm on it. We’ll know soon enough how the story ends.
---
## Jasper Therapeutics (JSPR) – New Addition: Turnaround Catalyst with Momentum
**Thesis:**
JSPR is our newly initiated position, chosen to deploy idle cash into a catalyst-driven opportunity
that isn’t a binary event but offers a strong rebound narrative:
- **Company & Catalyst:** Jasper is a biotech working on briquilimab, an antibody with multiple potential uses
(bone marrow transplant conditioning, chronic urticaria, and most recently being tested in asthma). The
stock was crushed in mid-2025 after an unexpected lack of efficacy in part of an early trial (the “BEACON”
study in chronic urticaria). However, on Dec 2, 2025 Jasper announced positive preliminary data from its
Phase 1b “ETESIAN” trial in allergic asthma, showing meaningful reductions in airway hyper-responsiveness
and eosinophil counts. At the same time, they completed an investigation into the prior trial’s anomaly,
presumably addressing the market’s concerns. This one-two punch of good news has the potential to reset
the market’s view on Jasper.
- **Deep Value Aspect:** At around $1.86/share (when we decided to buy), JSPR’s market cap is only ~$50M.
Meanwhile, Jasper has ~$50.9M in cash on its balance sheet. This implies the enterprise value is nearly
zero – investors are basically assigning no value to Jasper’s pipeline. That is likely an overreaction to the
earlier hiccup. Now that some positive data is in hand, there’s a case to be made that the pipeline does
have value (asthma is a huge market, and even though this is early data, it’s a proof-of-concept that could
attract partners or at least improved sentiment). In short, JSPR looks like a classic beaten-down biotech
that’s begun to turn the corner, and its stock could have a sharp upward correction as confidence rebuilds.
- **Momentum & Sentiment:** We also chose JSPR for technical reasons – since the Dec 2 news, the stock’s
trend has been upward (with daily moves like +8% on Dec 18 to $1.89). It appears traders are slowly
coming back to it. There might also be year-end dynamics at play: tax-loss sellers (the stock is down ~84%
YTD) may have finished selling by now, and bargain hunters are swooping in. We want to ride this
potential January Effect rally a bit early, in the final week of December.
- **Catalyst Path Forward:** While we don’t anticipate a specific binary event this week (e.g., no FDA
decision or Phase 3 result imminent), there are mini-catalysts:
- Jasper’s management is likely to present more data at upcoming conferences (maybe AAAAI or ATS
for asthma in early 2026). Sometimes, companies release additional data or updates around the
JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in January. It’s possible we get a hint of that or speculative run-up.
- The company might also announce next steps – e.g., expanding the asthma trial or starting a Phase 2.
Any such PR could bump the stock.
- Additionally, Jasper’s multiple programs (they also have trials in chronic spontaneous urticaria ongoing)
mean news flow can come from different angles – we’re not reliant on one thing. This is a nice contrast
to the rest of our portfolio which had very binary events.
- **Risk:** Jasper is still a clinical-stage biotech burning cash, so risks include potential dilutive financing in
the mid-term and the chance that further data might not pan out. In the one-week horizon, the main risk
is if the initial excitement fades and the stock slides back down (hence our stop-loss at $1.50 to limit that
downside). There’s also volatility risk – at <$2, small stocks can swing.
- **Our Game Plan:** We bought ~20 shares at ~$1.90. Our thesis is moderately high confidence that it’s
undervalued and due for a bounce, but we will not marry the position. We’ve set a stop to control downside
(~-21%). On the upside, if we see a solid lift (into mid-$2s), we’ll likely secure some profits. Essentially,
JSPR is our attempt to inject a fresh short-term alpha source into the portfolio at the eleventh hour – one
that isn’t all-or-nothing. We believe the risk-adjusted return here is attractive; even if it just climbs to
$2.50, that’s a ~30% gain, which would noticeably boost our portfolio. And if it disappoints, our stop will
ensure it only modestly hurts us.
**Thesis Confidence:** High in valuation gap, Moderate in immediate timeline.
---
## Overall Portfolio Thesis (Week 26)
We have repositioned for a final push that still aligns with our experimental strategy of seeking alpha from
special situations, but with a careful eye on risk.
- A de-risked winner (MIST) – providing stability and a foundation of realized success.
- A re-sized speculative bet (SLS) – still alive for a big score, but no longer carrying lethal portfolio risk.
- A new opportunistic trade (JSPR) – aiming to capitalize on a clear catalyst-driven valuation disconnect,
with disciplined risk control.
At a high level, our thesis for this week is:
> **“Balance offense and defense.”**
We are still swinging for upside (SLS’s trial and JSPR’s rebound could drive outperformance if things go
well), but we’ve also played defense by cutting exposure to the highest risk position and by setting stops
to guard against adverse moves.
In the prior weeks, we went “all or nothing” on biotech catalysts – a strategy that yielded mixed results
(one big win with MIST, one big loss with VTGN, and one pending with SLS). Now, with time nearly up, our
approach is slightly adjusted: we still embrace the potential of a biotech payoff (SLS), but we’ve hedged it
by taking profits; we’ve also diversified our bets slightly (adding JSPR’s non-binary catalyst) to improve our
risk adjusted return profile.
We are essentially giving ourselves more ways to win or at least not lose: SLS could win, JSPR could climb,
MIST could appreciate – any of those would help us, and not all of them have to happen for us to improve
our standing. At the same time, even if one or two go wrong, the portfolio won’t be devastated because of
our position sizing and stops.
---
## Next Week Thesis Outlook
Since this is the final week, our “thesis review” is more about how each position’s story will culminate.
- We expect to know the fate of SLS (thesis resolved one way or another).
- MIST’s thesis will shift fully to execution of launch, which is beyond our timeframe, so our focus is just
on a clean exit at a fair price.
- JSPR’s thesis might not fully play out in a week if it’s more of a medium-term recovery story, but we aim
to capture the initial leg of it now.
---
## Conclusion
In conclusion, our portfolio is positioned boldly but prudently. We have upside potential that is multiples
of our downside risk, which is the ideal scenario in an asymmetric strategy. We’ve actively applied lessons
learned (e.g., trimming SLS, not doubling down recklessly, cutting losers like VTGN quickly) and we’ve stayed
within all rules and constraints.
The thesis driving each position has been reaffirmed or adjusted based on the latest information, and we
believe each holding serves a purpose in the overall plan:
- **MIST:** Trust in a fundamental win – let it anchor and possibly grind higher.
- **SLS:** Give ourselves a shot at a transformative win, but ensure survival if it fails.
- **JSPR:** Seize a clear mispricing catalyst to add incremental alpha with controlled risk.
We enter the week cautiously optimistic. If things break our way, we have a credible chance to significantly
narrow the gap with the S&P (or even, in a dream scenario, outperform it). If not, our downside is cushioned
enough that we should still end up with a respectable outcome given the high-risk strategy we chose.
This balanced approach is our best foot forward for the final week, staying true to the portfolio’s high-alpha
intent while respecting risk to the very end.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 3 Summary.md
================================================
## Portfolio Reallocation Summary
By implementing the above, the portfolio shifts toward higher-conviction positions. We are holding onto winners (ABEO, IINN) and strong stories (CADL), while cutting the weakest link (AZTR). The freed capital is redeployed into MIST (targeting a biotech catalyst) and CCLD (a growth-at-a-value play).
This strategy blends:
- **Biotech event-driven upside**
- **Tech/AI-driven growth exposure**
Both sectors are positioned to outperform the broader market into late 2025.
### Position Rationale:
- **Abeona (ABEO):**
Hold for commercial execution of a newly approved therapy. Still undervalued relative to cash and pipeline potential.
- **Candel (CADL):**
Maintain position. 2025 may be a quiet year, but long-term oncology payoff remains promising.
- **Azitra (AZTR):**
Sell/rotate out due to funding risks and a binary outcome profile that no longer fits the high-conviction mandate.
- **Inspira (IINN):**
Add/Hold to capitalize on real revenue momentum and government-backed support.
- **Milestone (MIST):**
Initiate position as a high-reward catalyst trade into a December FDA decision.
- **CareCloud (CCLD):**
Buy based on undervaluation and emerging AI-driven growth narrative.
By focusing the portfolio on high-conviction, catalyst-backed ideas, we aim to maximize return potential. We will monitor each position closely and adjust using stop-losses and position sizing as needed. Barring major macro disruptions, this revised micro-cap portfolio is well-positioned to outperform heading into year-end.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 4 Summary.md
================================================
## Summary of Recommended Actions (July 18, 2025)
### Sell:
- **Candel Therapeutics (CADL)** – **SELL**
Lock in a +33% profit. The stock has appreciated on favorable news now priced in. With no significant catalysts expected until 2026, we will sell all 5 shares at ~$6.74 each (≈$33.70 total proceeds).
### Buy:
- **Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU)** – **NEW BUY**
Use CADL proceeds and available cash (~$2.32) to purchase approximately 6 shares of ACTU around $6.00 each. ACTU shows promise with positive Phase 2 cancer trial results and upcoming potential upside.
### Hold:
- **Abeona Therapeutics (ABEO)** – **HOLD**
Maintain our 6 shares. Strong cash reserves and the launch of ZEVASKYN position the stock for continued value realization as sales begin to ramp.
- **Azitra (AZTR)** – **HOLD (Speculative)**
Retain 55 shares. Despite a slight unrealized loss, we believe the upcoming Phase 1b data for Netherton syndrome (due Q4 2025) is a high-impact binary catalyst. No further buying due to elevated risk.
- **Inspira Technologies (IINN)** – **HOLD/Accumulating**
Continue holding 20 shares. The $22.5M order and regained Nasdaq compliance represent key turning points. We will consider adding more shares on pullbacks.
---
**Post-Reallocation Portfolio:**
- ABEO
- AZTR
- IINN
- ACTU
- (Small remaining cash reserve)
This strategy secures gains from CADL and reallocates capital toward higher-conviction opportunities. The portfolio remains diversified across both commercial-stage stories (ABEO, IINN) and clinical catalyst plays (ACTU, AZTR). We will continue to monitor news and price action, and remain flexible with risk controls.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 5 Summary.md
================================================
## Rationale & Conclusion
This rebalance aggressively reallocates capital toward the **highest-upside opportunities** while exiting a clear laggard. The strategy effectively trims profits (Inspira), cuts dead-weight (Azitra), and seizes two timely, catalyst-driven trades.
### New Additions:
- **Axogen (AXGN):**
Near-term binary FDA decision (~6 weeks) for Avance, backed by an already profitable-growth model. Potential for a fast spike if approved, with downside cushioned by ongoing revenue.
- **Esperion (ESPR):**
Turnaround cardiovascular story with real revenue growth and multiple quarters of cash runway. Risk/reward skews positive — if profitability or strategic news hits, a double is plausible. Diversifies the portfolio beyond devices/rare diseases.
### Key Holdings Retained:
- **Abeona (ABEO):**
De-risked biotech with FDA-approved product (ZEVASKYN) launching now. Cash-rich and positioned for alpha as sales come in.
- **Inspira Technologies (IINN):**
Riding momentum from major contracts and Nasdaq compliance. Trimmed for profits, but strong catalysts remain — continued upside likely.
- **Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU):**
High-risk/high-reward oncology play with excellent data and strong investor backing. Stop-loss protects downside; upside could be a multi-bagger.
---
### Risk & Strategy Notes:
- **AZTR exited** due to weak near-term outlook and high dilution risk.
- **AXGN and ESPR added** for event-driven setups (FDA approval, profitability inflection).
- **Position sizing remains disciplined** — no over-concentration, all trades are full-share and within cash means.
- **Stop-losses enforced** to protect downside; failed trades will self-limit risk.
---
### Final Thoughts:
This reallocation sets the portfolio up for a high-alpha second half of 2025. We’re now concentrated in positions with:
- Clear upcoming catalysts
- Positive news flow or earnings momentum
- Institutional or insider alignment
The new mix reflects a focused, evidence-backed, and risk-aware approach — fully aligned with the project’s mission to see if LLM-guided portfolios can consistently generate alpha in volatile micro-cap territory.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 6 Summary.md
================================================
# Current Thesis Summary (Week of August 5, 2025)
## ABEO – Abeona Therapeutics
Catalyst: FDA-approved gene therapy ZEVASKYN launching now for RDEB.
Thesis: Strong first-mover advantage in a rare disease with premium pricing. Well-capitalized after $155M PRV sale, with 2+ years of cash runway. Commercial launch de-risks the story.
Risk/Reward: Low downside (already approved); upside tied to launch ramp and potential early profitability by 2026.
## IINN – Inspira Technologies
Catalyst: $22.5M order for ART100 device + Nasdaq compliance regained.
Thesis: Validated product-market fit with large order; positioning to scale globally, including government health partnerships. Bullish momentum post-compliance.
Risk/Reward: Trimmed profits but still upside from additional contracts and scaling.
## AXGN – Axogen
Catalyst: FDA decision for Avance Nerve Graft expected September 5, 2025.
Thesis: Binary event with asymmetric setup. Even if approval fails, revenue growth (+17% YoY) and near-breakeven ops limit downside. If approved, potential breakout.
Risk/Reward: Moderate risk, high upside. Holding through catalyst.
## ESPR – Esperion Therapeutics
Catalyst: Continued sales growth + potential EU milestone resolution.
Thesis: Turnaround cholesterol drug play with +41% YoY U.S. sales and $114M cash runway into 2026. Multiple upside drivers (profitability, partnerships, EU settlement).
Risk/Reward: Commercial-stage biotech diversification with multi-bagger upside on execution.
## ACTU – Actuate Therapeutics
Catalyst: Positive Phase 2 results in pancreatic cancer.
Thesis: High-risk oncology play with standout survival data. Strong KOL support and big market. Recent $4.7M raise helps, but going-concern warning adds risk.
Risk/Reward: Multi-bagger potential if data drives attention. Strict stop-loss enforced to manage tail risk.
## Portfolio Strategy
We remain concentrated in catalyst-rich micro-caps with clear paths to price inflection. Our thesis balances:
Near-term events (ABEO launch, AXGN FDA decision),
Ongoing growth (ESPR, IINN),
High-conviction moonshots (ACTU).
All positions are actively risk-managed. The sole focus is generating alpha, and current holdings provide a well-balanced exposure into late 2025.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 7 Summary.md
================================================
# Portfolio Thesis Summary (Quick Reference)
---
## **ABEO (Abeona)** – Gene therapy launch
- **Thesis:** Monetized PRV funds launch; first-and-only one-time RDEB therapy can command premium pricing.
- **Catalyst:** Initial sales in 2H’25.
- **Risk:** Launch execution.
- **Position:** Continue to Hold.
---
## **IINN (Inspira)** – Respiratory device turnaround
- **Thesis:** $22.5M order proves demand; more contracts (government, global) likely.
- **Catalysts:** New deals, product expansions.
- **Risk:** Dilution (shelf filed) or order delays.
- **Position:** Hold; Stop $1.00.
---
## **AXGN (Axogen)** – Nerve repair FDA bet
- **Thesis:** Established revenue base + near-breakeven; if Avance graft wins approval (Sep 5), unlocks exclusivity and growth.
- **Catalyst:** FDA decision 9/5/25.
- **Risk:** Binary FDA outcome.
- **Position:** Hold through PDUFA.
---
## **ESPR (Esperion)** – Cholesterol drug turnaround
- **Thesis:** U.S. sales +42% YoY, EU dispute settled; runway into 2026, aiming for profitability in 2026.
- **Catalysts:** Continued sales growth; Japan approval H2’25.
- **Risk:** Needs to hit sales trajectory to avoid financing in 2025/26.
- **Position:** Hold.
---
## **ACTU (Actuate)** – Moonshot oncology
- **Thesis:** Phase 2 pancreatic data nearly doubled 1-year survival; huge value inflection if replicated.
- **Catalysts:** FDA Breakthrough decision; partnership.
- **Risk:** Cash (~$5M) < 1-year need; dilution ahead.
- **Position:** Hold small; Stop ~20%.
---
## **ATYR (aTyr)** – New buy: ILD Phase 3
- **Thesis:** Efzofitimod Phase 3 in sarcoidosis, high unmet need; prior data positive, $83M cash.
- **Catalyst:** Top-line mid-Sept 2025.
- **Risk:** Trial could fail; binary outcome.
- **Position:** Buy small position; Stop $3.00.
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 8 Summary.md
================================================
# Trade Execution Plan (Orders for Week of Aug 18, 2025)
## Sell Orders
### Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) – Aug 18, 2025
- Place a **limit sell** for all **6 shares** at **$8.00** (GTC/DAY).
- Locks in ~40% gain while ensuring no sale below recent price ($8.22 last close).
- **Rationale:** Taking profit and freeing capital for better opportunities.
### Esperion (ESPR) – Aug 18, 2025
- Place a **limit sell** for all **2 shares** at **$1.60** (DAY).
- Around stop level and just below ~$1.63 pre-market price (post-earnings) to ensure execution.
- **Rationale:** Redirect funds to nearer-term catalysts; minimal portfolio impact.
---
## Buy Orders
### Inspira Tech (IINN) – Aug 18, 2025
- Place a **limit buy** for **10 shares** at **$1.25** (DAY).
- If filled, **set stop-loss at $1.00** (~20% downside).
- **Rationale:** Positioning for upcoming contract catalysts with defined risk.
### Axogen (AXGN) – Aug 18, 2025
- Place a **limit buy** for **2 shares** at **$15.10** (DAY).
- If filled, **set stop-loss at $12.00** (~20% drawdown protection).
- **Rationale:** Positioning ahead of Sept 5 FDA decision; risk managed with stop.
---
## Adjustments
### Abeona (ABEO) – Stop-loss raised
- Raise stop-loss from **$4.90 → $6.00** on **4 shares**.
- **Rationale:** Lock in no-loss floor after run to $7+, while allowing early launch volatility.
---
## ⏱ Execution Notes
- All orders to be placed at **market open, Aug 18, 2025 (Monday)**.
- **Sell orders (ACTU, ESPR)** should free funds before buys trigger.
- If sells fail (e.g., gap down below limits and no recovery), buys won’t execute due to insufficient cash.
- In that case: **reassess** (adjust limit or skip purchase).
---
# Updated Portfolio Thesis Summary (Post-Trade)
### **ABEO (Abeona Therapeutics) – Gene Therapy Launch**
- **Thesis:** First-and-only one-time treatment for RDEB; FDA-approved and launching Q3’25. $155M PRV sale funds launch; strong early demand and payer coverage.
- **Catalysts:** First patient treated (Q3), initial sales reported Q4’25.
- **Risk:** Launch execution.
- **Position:** **Hold** (Stop raised to $6.00).
---
### **IINN (Inspira Tech) – Respiratory Device Turnaround**
- **Thesis:** $22.5M ART100 order validates product; more contracts (including gov’t) in pipeline. Transitioning to revenue phase.
- **Catalysts:**
1. New deal announcements
2. 2H’25 product deliveries
- **Risk:** Possible dilution (shelf filed) or order delays.
- **Position:** **Buy new position** (Stop $1.00).
---
### **AXGN (Axogen) – Nerve Repair FDA Bet**
- **Thesis:** Leader in nerve repair with growing sales; Avance graft FDA decision (Sep 5, 2025) could grant 12-yr exclusivity and drive growth.
- **Catalyst:** PDUFA Sep 5, 2025 (likely approval).
- **Risk:** Binary FDA outcome.
- **Position:** **Buy & hold through PDUFA** (Stop $12.00).
---
### **ATYR (aTyr Pharma) – Pulmonary Sarcoidosis Phase 3**
- **Thesis:** Efzofitimod Phase 3 readout mid-Sep 2025; prior data positive in reducing steroid use. Huge upside in high-need disease.
- **Catalyst:** Top-line results ~Sep 15, 2025.
- **Risk:** Binary trial outcome.
- **Position:** **Hold small position** (Stop $4.20).
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 9 Summary.md
================================================
# Updated Portfolio Thesis Summary (Post-Trade)
---
## ABEO (Abeona Therapeutics) – Gene Therapy Launch
**Thesis:**
First-and-only one-time gene therapy for RDEB (**ZEVASKYN**) – FDA approved April 2025 ([cgtlive.com](https://cgtlive.com)).
- Well-funded ($226M cash) ([Investors Page](https://investors.abeonatherapeutics.com))
- Launching in Q3’25 with strong early demand and payer coverage (100% approvals, including UnitedHealth) ([Investors Page](https://investors.abeonatherapeutics.com))
**Catalysts:**
- First patient treatment (Q3’25)
- Initial sales data (Q4’25)
**Risk:** Execution of launch and uptake pace.
**Position:** Hold **4 shares** (stop-loss $6.00). Raised stop to lock in profit floor while allowing upside ([Investors Page](https://investors.abeonatherapeutics.com)).
---
## ATYR (aTyr Pharma) – Pulmonary Sarcoidosis Phase 3
**Thesis:**
Lead drug *efzofitimod* could become the first steroid-sparing therapy for pulmonary sarcoidosis. Phase 3 readout mid-Sept 2025 is a major inflection point ([Nasdaq](https://nasdaq.com)).
- Prior Phase 2 data were promising
- Huge upside if positive (analysts’ targets $17–35) ([Investing.com](https://investing.com))
**Catalyst:** Phase 3 top-line data ~**Sep 15, 2025** – binary event.
**Risk:** Binary trial outcome (failure would severely impact stock).
**Position:** Adding **3 shares** (total 11) ahead of data, high conviction.
- Hold through data (stop-loss $4.20 on all shares).
- Small size contains risk.
---
## IINN (Inspira Technologies) – Respiratory Device Commercialization
**Thesis:**
Turnaround in progress after securing $22.5M order for ART100 system ([StockTitan](https://stocktitan.net)).
- Now entering revenue phase; more deals (governments/hospitals) in pipeline ([StockTitan](https://stocktitan.net))
- Hired top consulting firm, signaling aggressive growth strategy ([StocksToTrade](https://stockstotrade.com))
- Stock momentum positive (up ~11% on Aug 19 news) amid improving fundamentals
**Catalysts:**
- Additional contract announcements
- 2H’25 product deliveries to customers
**Risk:** Possible dilution (shelf registration filed) or order delays.
**Position:** Hold **10 shares** (stop-loss $1.00).
- Position for catalyst upside with defined risk.
- Stop remains at $1 to allow volatility; reassess if stock appreciates further.
---
## AXGN (Axogen Inc.) – FDA Approval Bet in Nerve Repair
**Thesis:**
Leading peripheral nerve repair company. Avance Nerve Graft FDA decision on **Sep 5, 2025** – likely approval would grant 12-year exclusivity ([StockTitan](https://stocktitan.net)).
- Q2 results strong (+18% revenue) and guidance raised (+17% growth for 2025) ([MedPath Trial](https://trial.medpath.com))
- Regulatory review on track (inspections & meetings completed) ([MedPath Trial](https://trial.medpath.com))
- Upside if approved: accelerated adoption and potential buyout interest
**Catalyst:** PDUFA **Sept 5, 2025** – FDA approval decision.
**Risk:** Binary FDA outcome (CRL or delay would hurt badly). Also label/launch execution issues.
**Position:** Hold **2 shares** through PDUFA (stop-loss $12.00).
- Small, speculative stake to capture approval alpha.
- No changes pre-decision; strategy will adjust post-FDA (take profit or cut loss).
---
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/chats.md
================================================
# Chats
**Note: I unfortunately only started documenting chats on (8-1).**
| Chat | Timestamp | Link |
|------|-----------|------|
| Conversation 1 | (8/1 - 8/29) | [View Chat](https://chatgpt.com/share/6897c737-2b10-8004-82f3-a32e00665b2d) |
| Conversation 2 | (8/30 - 9/26) | [View Chat](https://chatgpt.com/share/68b5b245-1730-8004-a917-d5539c3adf48) |
| Conversation 3 | (9/27 - Now) | [View Chat](https://chatgpt.com/share/68d88db7-4a38-8004-ae29-aafbaa4214c8) |
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/deep_research_index.md
================================================
# Deep Research Index
> **Note:** The “Starting Research” report was written *before trading began* and outlines
the initial hypotheses and strategy.
> All other reports (starting with Week 1) are written at the **end of each trading week**
and are used to guide decisions for the **upcoming trading week**.
| Week Report | Upcoming Week (Applied To) | Written After (Week Ended) | PDF | Summary |
|-------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------------|------|----------|
| Starting Research | Pre-Launch | — | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Starting%20Research.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Starting%20Research%20Summary.md) |
| Week 1 | **Jun 30 – Jul 3** | Before Trading Began | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%201.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%201%20Summary.md) |
| Week 2 | **Jul 7 – Jul 11** | Week 1 (Jun 30 – Jul 3) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%202.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%202%20Summary.md) |
| Week 3 | **Jul 14 – Jul 18** | Week 2 (Jul 7 – Jul 11) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%203.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%203%20Summary.md) |
| Week 4 | **Jul 21 – Jul 25** | Week 3 (Jul 14 – Jul 18) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%204.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%204%20Summary.md) |
| Week 5 | **Jul 28 – Aug 1** | Week 4 (Jul 21 – Jul 25) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%205.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%205%20Summary.md) |
| Week 6 | **Aug 4 – Aug 8** | Week 5 (Jul 28 – Aug 1) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%206.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%206%20Summary.md) |
| Week 7 | **Aug 11 – Aug 15** | Week 6 (Aug 4 – Aug 8) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%207.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%207%20Summary.md) |
| Week 8 | **Aug 18 – Aug 22** | Week 7 (Aug 11 – Aug 15) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%208.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%208%20Summary.md) |
| Week 9 | **Aug 25 – Aug 29** | Week 8 (Aug 18 – Aug 22) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%209.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%209%20Summary.md) |
| Week 10 | **Sep 2 – Sep 5** | Week 9 (Aug 25 – Aug 29) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2010.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2010%20Summary.md) |
| Week 11 | **Sep 8 – Sep 12** | Week 10 (Sep 2 – Sep 5) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2011.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2011%20Summary.md) |
| Week 12 | **Sep 15 – Sep 19** | Week 11 (Sep 8 – Sep 12) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2012.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2012%20Summary.md) |
| Week 13 | **Sep 22 – Sep 26** | Week 12 (Sep 15 – Sep 19) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2013.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2013%20Summary.md) |
| Week 14 | **Sep 29 – Oct 3** | Week 13 (Sep 22 – Sep 26) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2014.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2014%20Summary.md) |
| Week 15 | **Oct 6 – Oct 10** | Week 14 (Sep 29 – Oct 3) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2015.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2015%20Summary.md) |
| Week 16 | **Oct 13 – Oct 17** | Week 15 (Oct 6 – Oct 10) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2016.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2016%20Summary.md) |
| Week 17 | **Oct 20 – Oct 24** | Week 16 (Oct 13 – Oct 17) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2017.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2017%20Summary.md) |
| Week 18 | **Oct 27 – Oct 31** | Week 17 (Oct 20 – Oct 24) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2018.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2018%20Summary.md) |
| Week 19 | **Nov 3 – Nov 7** | Week 18 (Oct 27 – Oct 31) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2019.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2019%20Summary.md) |
| Week 20 | **Nov 10 – Nov 14** | Week 19 (Nov 3 – Nov 7) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2020.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2020%20Summary.md) |
| Week 21 | **Nov 17 – Nov 21** | Week 20 (Nov 10 – Nov 14) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2021.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2021%20Summary.md) |
| Week 22 | **Nov 24 – Nov 28** | Week 21 (Nov 17 – Nov 21) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2022.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2022%20Summary.md) |
| Week 23 | **Dec 1 – Dec 5** | Week 22 (Nov 24 – Nov 28) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2023.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2023%20Summary.md) |
| Week 24 | **Dec 8 – Dec 12** | Week 23 (Dec 1 – Dec 5) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2024.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2024%20Summary.md)
| Week 25 | **Dec 15 – Dec 19** | Week 22 (Dec 8 – Dec 12) | [PDF](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(PDF)/Week%2025.pdf) | [MD](Weekly%20Deep%20Research%20(MD)/Week%2025%20Summary.md)
| Week 26 | **Dec 22 – Dec 26** | Week 22 (Dec 15 – Dec 19) | ____ | ____
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/csv_files/Daily Updates.csv
================================================
Date,Ticker,Shares,Buy Price,Cost Basis,Stop Loss,Current Price,Total Value,PnL,Action,Cash Balance,Total Equity
2025-06-30,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.68,34.08,-0.54,HOLD,,
2025-06-30,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,5.06,25.3,0.1,HOLD,,
2025-06-30,CSAI,15.0,1.9,28.5,1.45,2.21,33.15,4.65,HOLD,,
2025-06-30,TOTAL,,,,,,92.53,4.21,,11.68,104.21
2025-07-01,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.57,33.42,-1.2,HOLD,,
2025-07-01,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,4.85,24.25,-0.95,HOLD,,
2025-07-01,CSAI,15.0,1.9,28.5,1.45,2.06,30.9,2.4,HOLD,,
2025-07-01,TOTAL,,,,,,88.57,0.25,,11.68,100.25
2025-07-02,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.87,35.22,0.6,HOLD,,
2025-07-02,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,4.99,24.95,-0.25,HOLD,,
2025-07-02,CSAI,15.0,1.9,28.5,1.45,2.3,34.5,6.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-02,TOTAL,,,,,,94.67,6.35,,11.68,106.35
2025-07-03,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.89,35.34,0.72,HOLD,,
2025-07-03,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,5.1,25.5,0.3,HOLD,,
2025-07-03,CSAI,15.0,1.9,28.5,1.45,2.28,34.2,5.7,HOLD,,
2025-07-03,TOTAL,,,,,,95.04,6.72,,11.68,106.72
2025-07-07,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.75,34.5,-0.12,HOLD,,
2025-07-07,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,4.99,24.95,-0.25,HOLD,,
2025-07-07,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.24,13.2,-0.55,HOLD,,
2025-07-07,TOTAL,,,,,,72.65,-0.92,,32.13,104.78
2025-07-08,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.84,35.04,0.42,HOLD,,
2025-07-08,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,5.24,26.2,1.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-08,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-08,TOTAL,,,,,,73.89,0.32,,32.13,106.02
2025-07-09,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.83,34.98,0.36,HOLD,,
2025-07-09,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.09,30.45,5.25,HOLD,,
2025-07-09,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.25,13.75,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-09,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.44,28.8,-1.2,HOLD,,
2025-07-09,TOTAL,,,,,,107.98,4.41,,2.32,110.3
2025-07-10,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.85,35.1,0.48,HOLD,,
2025-07-10,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.15,30.75,5.55,HOLD,,
2025-07-10,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.25,13.75,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-10,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.37,27.4,-2.6,HOLD,,
2025-07-10,TOTAL,,,,,,107.0,3.43,,2.32,109.32
2025-07-11,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.74,34.44,-0.18,HOLD,,
2025-07-11,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,5.81,29.05,3.85,HOLD,,
2025-07-11,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-11,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.2,24.0,-6.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-11,TOTAL,,,,,,100.14,-3.43,,2.32,102.46
2025-07-14,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.92,35.52,0.9,HOLD,,
2025-07-14,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.43,32.15,6.95,HOLD,,
2025-07-14,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-14,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.4,28.0,-2.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-14,TOTAL,,,,,,108.32,4.75,,2.32,110.64
2025-07-15,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,5.95,35.7,1.08,HOLD,,
2025-07-15,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.25,31.25,6.05,HOLD,,
2025-07-15,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.22,12.1,-1.65,HOLD,,
2025-07-15,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.34,26.8,-3.2,HOLD,,
2025-07-15,TOTAL,,,,,,105.85,2.28,,2.32,108.17
2025-07-16,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.26,37.56,2.94,HOLD,,
2025-07-16,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.85,34.25,9.05,HOLD,,
2025-07-16,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.24,13.2,-0.55,HOLD,,
2025-07-16,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.37,27.4,-2.6,HOLD,,
2025-07-16,TOTAL,,,,,,112.41,8.84,,2.32,114.73
2025-07-17,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.63,39.78,5.16,HOLD,,
2025-07-17,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.92,34.6,9.4,HOLD,,
2025-07-17,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-17,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.47,29.4,-0.6,HOLD,,
2025-07-17,TOTAL,,,,,,116.43,12.86,,2.32,118.75
2025-07-18,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.59,39.54,4.92,HOLD,,
2025-07-18,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,4.03,6.74,33.7,8.5,HOLD,,
2025-07-18,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-18,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.41,28.2,-1.8,HOLD,,
2025-07-18,TOTAL,,,,,,114.09,10.52,,2.32,116.41
2025-07-21,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.75,40.5,5.88,HOLD,,
2025-07-21,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-21,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.3,26.0,-4.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-21,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,5.66,33.96,-0.54,HOLD,,
2025-07-21,TOTAL,,,,,,113.11,0.24,,0.77,113.88
2025-07-22,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.52,39.12,4.5,HOLD,,
2025-07-22,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-22,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.38,27.6,-2.4,HOLD,,
2025-07-22,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,6.26,37.56,3.06,HOLD,,
2025-07-22,TOTAL,,,,,,116.93,4.06,,2.32,119.25
2025-07-23,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.71,40.26,5.64,HOLD,,
2025-07-23,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.24,13.2,-0.55,HOLD,,
2025-07-23,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.36,27.2,-2.8,HOLD,,
2025-07-23,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,6.6,39.6,5.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-23,TOTAL,,,,,,120.26,7.39,,2.32,122.58
2025-07-24,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.65,39.9,5.28,HOLD,,
2025-07-24,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.23,12.65,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-24,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.43,28.6,-1.4,HOLD,,
2025-07-24,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,6.99,41.94,7.44,HOLD,,
2025-07-24,TOTAL,,,,,,123.09,10.22,,2.32,125.41
2025-07-25,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.53,39.18,4.56,HOLD,,
2025-07-25,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.22,12.1,-1.65,HOLD,,
2025-07-25,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,1.1,1.41,28.2,-1.8,HOLD,,
2025-07-25,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.26,43.56,9.06,HOLD,,
2025-07-25,TOTAL,,,,,,123.04,10.17,,2.32,125.36
2025-07-28,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.62,39.72,5.1,HOLD,,
2025-07-28,IINN,14.0,1.5,21.0,1.1,1.34,18.76,-2.24,HOLD,,
2025-07-28,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,6.86,41.16,6.66,HOLD,,
2025-07-28,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.18,0.2,11.0,-2.75,HOLD,,
2025-07-28,TOTAL,,,,,,110.64,6.77,,11.32,121.96
2025-07-29,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.75,40.5,5.88,HOLD,,
2025-07-29,IINN,14.0,1.5,21.0,1.1,1.26,17.64,-3.36,HOLD,,
2025-07-29,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,6.77,40.62,6.12,HOLD,,
2025-07-29,TOTAL,,,,,,98.76,8.64,,22.32,121.08
2025-07-30,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.8,40.8,6.18,HOLD,,
2025-07-30,IINN,14.0,1.5,21.0,1.1,1.26,17.64,-3.36,HOLD,,
2025-07-30,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.27,43.62,9.12,HOLD,,
2025-07-30,TOTAL,,,,,,102.06,11.94,,22.32,124.38
2025-07-31,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,4.9,6.37,38.22,3.6,HOLD,,
2025-07-31,IINN,14.0,1.5,21.0,1.1,1.27,17.78,-3.22,HOLD,,
2025-07-31,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.25,43.5,9.0,HOLD,,
2025-07-31,TOTAL,,,,,,99.5,9.38,,22.32,121.82
2025-08-01,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.49,25.96,2.88,HOLD,,
2025-08-01,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.23,19.68,-4.32,HOLD,,
2025-08-01,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.26,43.56,9.06,HOLD,,
2025-08-01,TOTAL,,,,,,89.2,7.62,,31.58,120.78
2025-08-04,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.42,25.68,2.6,HOLD,,
2025-08-04,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.31,20.96,-3.04,HOLD,,
2025-08-04,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.07,42.42,7.92,HOLD,,
2025-08-04,TOTAL,,,,,,89.06,7.48,,31.58,120.64
2025-08-05,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.47,25.88,2.8,HOLD,,
2025-08-05,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.28,20.48,-3.52,HOLD,,
2025-08-05,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,7.31,43.86,9.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-05,TOTAL,,,,,,90.22,8.64,,31.58,121.8
2025-08-06,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.39,25.56,2.48,HOLD,,
2025-08-06,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.22,19.52,-4.48,HOLD,,
2025-08-06,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.17,49.02,14.52,HOLD,,
2025-08-06,TOTAL,,,,,,94.1,12.52,,31.58,125.68
2025-08-07,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.27,25.08,2.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-07,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.16,18.56,-5.44,HOLD,,
2025-08-07,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.07,48.42,13.92,HOLD,,
2025-08-07,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,1.81,3.62,-0.2,HOLD,,
2025-08-07,TOTAL,,,,,,95.68,10.28,,27.76,123.44
2025-08-08,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.26,25.04,1.96,HOLD,,
2025-08-08,IINN,16.0,1.5,24.0,1.1,1.1,17.6,-6.4,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-08-08,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.02,48.12,13.62,HOLD,,
2025-08-08,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,1.87,3.74,-0.08,HOLD,,
2025-08-08,TOTAL,,,,,,76.9,15.5,,45.36,122.26
2025-08-11,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.28,25.12,2.04,HOLD,,
2025-08-11,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.01,48.06,13.56,HOLD,,
2025-08-11,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,1.85,3.7,-0.12,HOLD,,
2025-08-11,TOTAL,,,,,,76.88,15.48,,45.36,122.24
2025-08-12,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.38,25.52,2.44,HOLD,,
2025-08-12,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.67,52.02,17.52,HOLD,,
2025-08-12,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,1.79,3.58,-0.24,HOLD,,
2025-08-12,TOTAL,,,,,,81.12,19.72,,45.36,126.48
2025-08-13,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,6.56,26.24,3.16,HOLD,,
2025-08-13,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.53,51.18,16.68,HOLD,,
2025-08-13,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,1.94,3.88,0.06,HOLD,,
2025-08-13,TOTAL,,,,,,81.3,19.9,,45.36,126.66
2025-08-14,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,7.23,28.92,5.84,HOLD,,
2025-08-14,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,4.89,8.22,49.32,14.82,HOLD,,
2025-08-14,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,2.07,4.14,0.32,HOLD,,
2025-08-14,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.99,39.92,-0.8,HOLD,,
2025-08-14,TOTAL,,,,,,122.3,20.18,,4.64,126.94
2025-08-15,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,4.9,7.13,28.52,5.44,HOLD,,
2025-08-15,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,6.0,8.12,48.72,14.22,HOLD,,
2025-08-15,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,1.6,2.05,4.1,0.28,HOLD,,
2025-08-15,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.9,39.2,-1.52,HOLD,,
2025-08-15,TOTAL,,,,,,120.54,18.42,,4.64,125.18
2025-08-18,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.91,27.64,4.56,HOLD,,
2025-08-18,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.91,39.28,-1.44,HOLD,,
2025-08-18,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.25,12.5,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-18,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,15.49,30.98,1.06,HOLD,,
2025-08-18,TOTAL,,,,,,110.4,4.18,,15.08,125.48
2025-08-19,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.84,27.36,4.28,HOLD,,
2025-08-19,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.66,37.28,-3.44,HOLD,,
2025-08-19,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.23,12.3,-0.2,HOLD,,
2025-08-19,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,15.36,30.72,0.8,HOLD,,
2025-08-19,TOTAL,,,,,,107.66,1.44,,15.08,122.74
2025-08-20,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,7.0,28.0,4.92,HOLD,,
2025-08-20,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.92,39.36,-1.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-20,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.25,12.5,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-20,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,15.56,31.12,1.2,HOLD,,
2025-08-20,TOTAL,,,,,,110.98,4.76,,15.08,126.06
2025-08-21,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,7.11,28.44,5.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-21,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,4.95,39.6,-1.12,HOLD,,
2025-08-21,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.25,12.5,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-21,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,15.84,31.68,1.76,HOLD,,
2025-08-21,TOTAL,,,,,,112.22,6.0,,15.08,127.3
2025-08-22,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,7.23,28.92,5.84,HOLD,,
2025-08-22,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.35,42.8,2.08,HOLD,,
2025-08-22,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.17,11.7,-0.8,HOLD,,
2025-08-22,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,16.26,32.52,2.6,HOLD,,
2025-08-22,TOTAL,,,,,,115.94,9.72,,15.08,131.02
2025-08-25,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,7.01,28.04,4.96,HOLD,,
2025-08-25,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.16,41.28,0.56,HOLD,,
2025-08-25,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.14,11.4,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-08-25,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,14.79,29.58,-0.34,HOLD,,
2025-08-25,TOTAL,,,,,,110.3,4.08,,15.08,125.38
2025-08-26,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,7.11,28.44,5.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-26,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.14,41.12,0.4,HOLD,,
2025-08-26,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.18,11.8,-0.7,HOLD,,
2025-08-26,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,16.21,32.42,2.5,HOLD,,
2025-08-26,TOTAL,,,,,,113.78,7.56,,15.08,128.86
2025-08-27,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.9,27.6,4.52,HOLD,,
2025-08-27,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.17,41.36,0.64,HOLD,,
2025-08-27,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.16,11.6,-0.9,HOLD,,
2025-08-27,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,16.14,32.28,2.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-27,TOTAL,,,,,,112.84,6.62,,15.08,127.92
2025-08-28,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.83,27.32,4.24,HOLD,,
2025-08-28,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.38,43.04,2.32,HOLD,,
2025-08-28,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.15,11.5,-1.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-28,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,16.14,32.28,2.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-28,TOTAL,,,,,,114.14,7.92,,15.08,129.22
2025-08-29,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.83,27.32,4.24,HOLD,,
2025-08-29,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,4.2,5.38,43.04,2.32,HOLD,,
2025-08-29,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,1.0,1.15,11.5,-1.0,HOLD,,
2025-08-29,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,12.0,16.14,32.28,2.36,HOLD,,
2025-08-29,TOTAL,,,,,,114.14,7.92,,15.08,129.22
2025-09-02,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.85,27.4,4.32,HOLD,,
2025-09-02,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.22,5.65,67.8,5.32,HOLD,,
2025-09-02,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,13.0,15.71,31.42,1.5,HOLD,,
2025-09-02,TOTAL,,,,,,126.62,11.14,,4.92,131.54
2025-09-03,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.2,6.96,27.84,4.76,HOLD,,
2025-09-03,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.22,5.71,68.52,6.04,HOLD,,
2025-09-03,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,13.0,15.61,31.22,1.3,HOLD,,
2025-09-03,TOTAL,,,,,,127.58,12.1,,4.92,132.5
2025-09-04,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.86,27.44,4.36,HOLD,,
2025-09-04,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.22,5.47,65.64,3.16,HOLD,,
2025-09-04,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,13.0,15.4,30.8,0.88,HOLD,,
2025-09-04,FBIO,1.0,2.85,2.85,2.0,2.84,2.84,-0.01,HOLD,,
2025-09-04,TOTAL,,,,,,126.72,8.39,,2.07,128.79
2025-09-05,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.89,27.56,4.48,HOLD,,
2025-09-05,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.22,5.61,67.32,4.84,HOLD,,
2025-09-05,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,13.0,15.98,31.96,2.04,HOLD,,
2025-09-05,FBIO,1.0,2.85,2.85,2.0,3.71,3.71,0.86,HOLD,,
2025-09-05,TOTAL,,,,,,130.55,12.22,,2.07,132.62
2025-09-08,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.0,6.7,26.8,3.72,HOLD,,
2025-09-08,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.22,5.47,65.64,3.16,HOLD,,
2025-09-08,FBIO,3.0,3.483333333333333,10.45,2.0,3.58,10.74,0.29,HOLD,,
2025-09-08,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.97,13.94,-0.76,HOLD,,
2025-09-08,TOTAL,,,,,,117.12,6.41,,11.97,129.09
2025-09-09,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.4,6.83,27.32,4.24,HOLD,,
2025-09-09,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.6,5.31,63.72,1.24,HOLD,,
2025-09-09,FBIO,3.0,3.483333333333333,10.45,2.0,3.59,10.77,0.32,HOLD,,
2025-09-09,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.97,13.94,-0.76,HOLD,,
2025-09-09,TOTAL,,,,,,115.75,5.04,,11.97,127.72
2025-09-10,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.4,6.75,27.0,3.92,HOLD,,
2025-09-10,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.6,5.26,63.12,0.64,HOLD,,
2025-09-10,FBIO,3.0,3.483333333333333,10.45,2.0,3.83,11.49,1.04,HOLD,,
2025-09-10,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,7.07,14.14,-0.56,HOLD,,
2025-09-10,TOTAL,,,,,,115.75,5.04,,11.97,127.72
2025-09-11,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.4,6.75,27.0,3.92,HOLD,,
2025-09-11,ATYR,12.0,5.206666666666667,62.48,4.6,5.26,63.12,0.64,HOLD,,
2025-09-11,FBIO,3.0,3.483333333333333,10.45,2.0,3.83,11.49,1.04,HOLD,,
2025-09-11,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,7.07,14.14,-0.56,HOLD,,
2025-09-11,TOTAL,,,,,,115.75,5.04,,11.97,127.72
2025-09-12,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.4,6.43,25.72,2.64,HOLD,,
2025-09-12,ATYR,10.0,5.206666666666667,52.06666666666667,4.6,6.03,60.3,8.23,HOLD,,
2025-09-12,FBIO,3.0,3.483333333333333,10.45,2.0,3.89,11.67,1.22,HOLD,,
2025-09-12,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.81,13.62,-1.08,HOLD,,
2025-09-12,TOTAL,,,,,,111.31,11.01,,23.77,135.08
2025-09-15,ABEO,4.0,5.77,23.08,6.4,6.4,25.6,2.52,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-09-15,FBIO,8.0,3.7125,29.7,2.0,3.55,28.4,-1.3,HOLD,,
2025-09-15,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.8,13.6,-1.1,HOLD,,
2025-09-15,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,2.5,2.75,13.75,-0.55,HOLD,,
2025-09-15,TOTAL,,,,,,55.75,-2.95,,28.42,84.17
2025-09-16,FBIO,8.0,3.7125,29.7,2.0,3.43,27.44,-2.26,HOLD,,
2025-09-16,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.69,13.38,-1.32,HOLD,,
2025-09-16,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,2.5,2.79,13.95,-0.35,HOLD,,
2025-09-16,TOTAL,,,,,,54.77,-3.93,,28.42,83.19
2025-09-17,FBIO,8.0,3.7125,29.7,2.0,3.44,27.52,-2.18,HOLD,,
2025-09-17,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.66,13.32,-1.38,HOLD,,
2025-09-17,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,2.5,2.81,14.05,-0.25,HOLD,,
2025-09-17,TOTAL,,,,,,54.89,-3.81,,28.42,83.31
2025-09-18,FBIO,8.0,3.7125,29.7,2.0,3.56,28.48,-1.22,HOLD,,
2025-09-18,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,7.1,14.2,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-09-18,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,2.5,2.76,13.8,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-09-18,TOTAL,,,,,,56.48,-2.22,,28.42,84.9
2025-09-19,FBIO,8.0,3.7125,29.7,2.0,3.67,29.36,-0.34,HOLD,,
2025-09-19,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,5.75,6.6,13.2,-1.5,HOLD,,
2025-09-19,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,2.5,2.69,13.45,-0.85,HOLD,,
2025-09-19,TOTAL,,,,,,56.01,-2.69,,28.42,84.43
2025-09-22,FBIO,5.0,3.7125,19.899,3.1,4.0,20.0,1.44,HOLD,,
2025-09-22,FDMT,1.0,7.35,7.35,5.75,7.4,7.4,0.05,HOLD,,
2025-09-22,ALDX,6.0,4.93,29.58,4.0,4.95,29.7,0.12,HOLD,,
2025-09-22,SPRO,12.0,2.01,24.12,1.95,2.03,24.36,0.24,HOLD,,
2025-09-22,TOTAL,,,,,,81.46,1.85,,4.2,85.66
2025-09-23,FBIO,5.0,3.7125,19.899,3.1,3.65,18.25,-0.31,HOLD,,
2025-09-23,ALDX,6.0,4.93,29.58,4.0,5.11,30.66,1.08,HOLD,,
2025-09-23,SPRO,12.0,2.01,24.12,1.95,2.01,24.12,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-09-23,TOTAL,,,,,,73.03,0.77,,11.71,84.74
2025-09-24,FBIO,5.0,3.7125,19.899,3.1,3.69,18.45,-0.11,HOLD,,
2025-09-24,ALDX,7.0,4.947142857142857,34.629999999999995,4.0,5.01,35.07,0.44,HOLD,,
2025-09-24,SPRO,12.0,2.01,24.12,1.95,1.97,23.64,-0.48,HOLD,,
2025-09-24,TOTAL,,,,,,77.16,-0.15,,6.66,83.82
2025-09-25,FBIO,5.0,3.7125,19.899,3.1,3.75,18.75,0.19,HOLD,,
2025-09-25,ALDX,8.0,4.9475,39.58,4.0,4.95,39.6,0.02,HOLD,,
2025-09-25,SPRO,12.0,2.01,24.12,1.95,1.95,23.4,-0.72,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-09-25,TOTAL,,,,,,58.35,0.21,,25.11,83.46
2025-09-26,FBIO,5.0,3.7125,19.899,3.1,3.91,19.55,0.99,HOLD,,
2025-09-26,ALDX,8.0,4.9475,39.58,4.0,5.07,40.56,0.98,HOLD,,
2025-09-26,TOTAL,,,,,,60.11,1.97,,25.11,85.22
2025-09-29,FBIO,7.0,3.957,27.699,3.1,3.9,27.3,-0.4,HOLD,,
2025-09-29,ALDX,6.0,4.9475,29.685,4.0,5.21,31.26,1.58,HOLD,,
2025-09-29,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,1.9,24.7,0.13,HOLD,,
2025-09-29,TOTAL,,,,,,83.26,1.31,,3.04,86.3
2025-09-30,FBIO,7.0,3.957,27.699,3.1,3.7,25.9,-1.8,HOLD,,
2025-09-30,ALDX,6.0,4.9475,29.685,4.0,5.22,31.32,1.63,HOLD,,
2025-09-30,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,1.88,24.44,-0.13,HOLD,,
2025-09-30,TOTAL,,,,,,81.66,-0.3,,3.04,84.7
2025-10-01,FBIO,7.0,3.957,27.699,3.1,2.47,17.29,-10.41,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-10-01,ALDX,6.0,4.9475,29.685,4.0,5.24,31.44,1.76,HOLD,,
2025-10-01,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,1.96,25.48,0.91,HOLD,,
2025-10-01,TOTAL,,,,,,56.92,2.67,,20.33,77.25
2025-10-02,ALDX,6.0,4.9475,29.685,4.0,5.32,31.92,2.24,HOLD,,
2025-10-02,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,2.03,26.39,1.82,HOLD,,
2025-10-02,TOTAL,,,,,,58.31,4.06,,20.33,78.64
2025-10-03,ALDX,6.0,4.9475,29.685,4.0,5.74,34.44,4.76,HOLD,,
2025-10-03,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,2.05,26.65,2.08,HOLD,,
2025-10-03,TOTAL,,,,,,61.09,6.84,,20.33,81.42
2025-10-06,ALDX,3.0,4.9475,14.8425,4.0,5.51,16.53,1.69,HOLD,,
2025-10-06,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,2.09,27.17,2.6,HOLD,,
2025-10-06,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,1.6,2.04,20.4,-0.4,HOLD,,
2025-10-06,TLSA,8.0,1.9900000095367432,15.920000076293944,1.5,1.97,15.76,-0.16,HOLD,,
2025-10-06,TOTAL,,,,,,79.86,3.73,,0.95,80.81
2025-10-07,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.65,2.16,28.08,3.51,HOLD,,
2025-10-07,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,1.6,2.03,20.3,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-10-07,TLSA,8.0,1.9900000095367432,15.920000076293944,1.5,2.17,17.36,1.44,HOLD,,
2025-10-07,TOTAL,,,,,,65.74,4.45,,17.48,83.22
2025-10-08,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.8,2.28,29.64,5.07,HOLD,,
2025-10-08,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,1.75,2.24,22.4,1.6,HOLD,,
2025-10-08,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.29,13.74,1.8,HOLD,,
2025-10-08,TOTAL,,,,,,65.78,8.47,,21.98,87.76
2025-10-09,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,1.8,2.36,30.68,6.11,HOLD,,
2025-10-09,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,1.75,2.1,21.0,0.2,HOLD,,
2025-10-09,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.13,12.78,0.84,HOLD,,
2025-10-09,TOTAL,,,,,,64.46,7.15,,21.98,86.44
2025-10-10,SPRO,22.0,2.090454537001523,45.98999981403351,1.78,2.25,49.5,3.51,HOLD,,
2025-10-10,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,1.75,1.95,19.5,-1.3,HOLD,,
2025-10-10,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.04,12.24,0.3,HOLD,,
2025-10-10,TOTAL,,,,,,81.24,2.51,,0.56,81.8
2025-10-13,SPRO,15.0,2.090454537001523,31.356818055022845,1.78,2.29,34.35,2.99,HOLD,,
2025-10-13,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.13,12.78,0.84,HOLD,,
2025-10-13,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.99,33.83,-0.68,HOLD,,
2025-10-13,TOTAL,,,,,,80.96,3.15,,2.4,83.36
2025-10-14,SPRO,15.0,2.090454537001523,31.356818055022845,1.78,2.36,35.4,4.04,HOLD,,
2025-10-14,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.14,12.84,0.9,HOLD,,
2025-10-14,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,2.05,34.85,0.34,HOLD,,
2025-10-14,TOTAL,,,,,,83.09,5.28,,2.4,85.49
2025-10-15,SPRO,15.0,2.090454537001523,31.356818055022845,1.78,2.49,37.35,5.99,HOLD,,
2025-10-15,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.11,12.66,0.72,HOLD,,
2025-10-15,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,2.05,34.85,0.34,HOLD,,
2025-10-15,TOTAL,,,,,,84.86,7.05,,2.4,87.26
2025-10-16,SPRO,15.0,2.090454537001523,31.356818055022845,1.78,2.35,35.25,3.89,HOLD,,
2025-10-16,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,2.02,12.12,0.18,HOLD,,
2025-10-16,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.97,33.49,-1.02,HOLD,,
2025-10-16,TOTAL,,,,,,80.86,3.05,,2.4,83.26
2025-10-17,SPRO,15.0,2.090454537001523,31.356818055022845,1.78,2.21,33.15,1.79,HOLD,,
2025-10-17,TLSA,6.0,1.9900000095367432,11.94000005722046,1.78,1.95,11.7,-0.24,HOLD,,
2025-10-17,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.94,32.98,-1.53,HOLD,,
2025-10-17,TOTAL,,,,,,77.83,0.02,,2.4,80.23
2025-10-20,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.99,33.83,-0.68,HOLD,,
2025-10-20,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.38,23.8,1.2,HOLD,,
2025-10-20,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.8,22.4,-0.4,HOLD,,
2025-10-20,TOTAL,,,,,,80.03,0.12,,2.0,82.03
2025-10-21,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,2.03,34.51,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-10-21,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.36,23.6,1.0,HOLD,,
2025-10-21,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.67,21.36,-1.44,HOLD,,
2025-10-21,TOTAL,,,,,,79.47,-0.44,,2.0,81.47
2025-10-22,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.91,32.47,-2.04,HOLD,,
2025-10-22,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.27,22.7,0.1,HOLD,,
2025-10-22,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.51,20.08,-2.72,HOLD,,
2025-10-22,TOTAL,,,,,,75.25,-4.66,,2.0,77.25
2025-10-23,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.89,32.13,-2.38,HOLD,,
2025-10-23,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.3,23.0,0.4,HOLD,,
2025-10-23,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.47,19.76,-3.04,HOLD,,
2025-10-23,TOTAL,,,,,,74.89,-5.02,,2.0,76.89
2025-10-24,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,1.7,1.88,31.96,-2.55,HOLD,,
2025-10-24,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.27,22.7,0.1,HOLD,,
2025-10-24,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.42,19.36,-3.44,HOLD,,
2025-10-24,TOTAL,,,,,,74.02,-5.89,,2.0,76.02
2025-10-27,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.91,34.38,-2.03,HOLD,,
2025-10-27,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.21,22.1,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-10-27,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.39,19.12,-3.68,HOLD,,
2025-10-27,TOTAL,,,,,,75.6,-6.21,,0.1,75.7
2025-10-28,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.83,32.94,-3.47,HOLD,,
2025-10-28,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.17,21.7,-0.9,HOLD,,
2025-10-28,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,2.3,2.3,18.4,-4.4,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-10-28,TOTAL,,,,,,54.64,-4.37,,18.5,73.14
2025-10-29,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.84,33.12,-3.29,HOLD,,
2025-10-29,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.18,21.8,-0.8,HOLD,,
2025-10-29,TOTAL,,,,,,54.92,-4.09,,18.5,73.42
2025-10-30,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.88,33.84,-2.57,HOLD,,
2025-10-30,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.21,22.1,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-10-30,TOTAL,,,,,,55.94,-3.07,,18.5,74.44
2025-10-31,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.92,34.56,-1.85,HOLD,,
2025-10-31,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.27,22.7,0.1,HOLD,,
2025-10-31,TOTAL,,,,,,57.26,-1.75,,18.5,75.76
2025-11-03,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.85,33.3,-3.11,HOLD,,
2025-11-03,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.21,22.1,-0.5,HOLD,,
2025-11-03,TOTAL,,,,,,55.4,-3.61,,18.5,73.9
2025-11-05,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.8,32.4,-4.01,HOLD,,
2025-11-05,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,2.17,21.7,-0.9,HOLD,,
2025-11-05,TOTAL,,,,,,54.1,-4.91,,18.5,72.6
2025-11-06,MIST,18.0,2.022777750757005,36.4099995136261,1.7,1.7,30.6,-5.81,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-11-06,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,1.8,1.8,18.0,-4.6,SELL - Stop Loss Triggered,,
2025-11-06,TOTAL,,,,,,0.0,0.0,,67.1,67.1
2025-11-07,TOTAL,,,,,,0.0,0.0,,67.1,67.1
2025-11-10,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,1.85,25.9,1.4,HOLD,,
2025-11-10,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,3.98,23.88,-0.18,HOLD,,
2025-11-10,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,1.6,2.09,16.72,0.64,HOLD,,
2025-11-10,TOTAL,,,,,,66.5,1.86,,2.46,68.96
2025-11-11,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,1.91,26.74,2.24,HOLD,,
2025-11-11,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.03,24.18,0.12,HOLD,,
2025-11-11,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,1.6,2.1,16.8,0.72,HOLD,,
2025-11-11,TOTAL,,,,,,67.72,3.08,,2.46,70.18
2025-11-12,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,1.93,27.02,2.52,HOLD,,
2025-11-12,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.07,24.42,0.36,HOLD,,
2025-11-12,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,1.6,2.06,16.48,0.4,HOLD,,
2025-11-12,TOTAL,,,,,,67.92,3.28,,2.46,70.38
2025-11-13,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,1.9,26.6,2.1,HOLD,,
2025-11-13,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,3.8,22.8,-1.26,HOLD,,
2025-11-13,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,1.6,2.06,16.48,0.4,HOLD,,
2025-11-13,TOTAL,,,,,,65.88,1.24,,2.46,68.34
2025-11-14,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.0,28.0,3.5,HOLD,,
2025-11-14,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,3.8,22.8,-1.26,HOLD,,
2025-11-14,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,1.6,2.09,16.72,0.64,HOLD,,
2025-11-14,TOTAL,,,,,,67.52,2.88,,2.46,69.98
2025-11-17,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.32,32.48,7.98,HOLD,,
2025-11-17,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.42,26.52,2.46,HOLD,,
2025-11-17,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.41,18.33,0.0,HOLD,,
2025-11-17,TOTAL,,,,,,77.33,10.44,,0.85,78.18
2025-11-18,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.41,33.74,9.24,HOLD,,
2025-11-18,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.63,27.78,3.72,HOLD,,
2025-11-18,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.59,20.67,2.34,HOLD,,
2025-11-18,TOTAL,,,,,,82.19,15.3,,0.85,83.04
2025-11-19,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.33,32.62,8.12,HOLD,,
2025-11-19,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.5,27.0,2.94,HOLD,,
2025-11-19,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.52,19.76,1.43,HOLD,,
2025-11-19,TOTAL,,,,,,79.38,12.49,,0.85,80.23
2025-11-20,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.31,32.34,7.84,HOLD,,
2025-11-20,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.45,26.7,2.64,HOLD,,
2025-11-20,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.46,18.98,0.65,HOLD,,
2025-11-20,TOTAL,,,,,,78.02,11.13,,0.85,78.87
2025-11-21,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.4,33.6,9.1,HOLD,,
2025-11-21,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.59,27.54,3.48,HOLD,,
2025-11-21,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.53,19.89,1.56,HOLD,,
2025-11-21,TOTAL,,,,,,81.03,14.14,,0.85,81.88
2025-11-24,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.37,33.18,8.68,HOLD,,
2025-11-24,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.72,28.32,4.26,HOLD,,
2025-11-24,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.55,20.15,1.82,HOLD,,
2025-11-24,TOTAL,,,,,,81.65,14.76,,0.85,82.5
2025-11-25,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.47,34.58,10.08,HOLD,,
2025-11-25,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.69,28.14,4.08,HOLD,,
2025-11-25,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.44,18.72,0.39,HOLD,,
2025-11-25,TOTAL,,,,,,81.44,14.55,,0.85,82.29
2025-11-26,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.61,36.54,12.04,HOLD,,
2025-11-26,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.54,27.24,3.18,HOLD,,
2025-11-26,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.46,18.98,0.65,HOLD,,
2025-11-26,TOTAL,,,,,,82.76,15.87,,0.85,83.61
2025-11-28,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.5,2.69,37.66,13.16,HOLD,,
2025-11-28,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.9,29.4,5.34,HOLD,,
2025-11-28,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.62,21.06,2.73,HOLD,,
2025-11-28,TOTAL,,,,,,88.12,21.23,,0.85,88.97
2025-12-01,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.69,37.66,13.16,HOLD,,
2025-12-01,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,4.43,26.58,2.52,HOLD,,
2025-12-01,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.5,19.5,1.17,HOLD,,
2025-12-01,TOTAL,,,,,,83.74,16.85,,0.85,84.59
2025-12-02,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.65,37.1,12.6,HOLD,,
2025-12-02,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,3.2,3.6,21.6,-2.46,HOLD,,
2025-12-02,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.39,18.07,-0.26,HOLD,,
2025-12-02,TOTAL,,,,,,76.77,9.88,,0.85,77.62
2025-12-03,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.62,36.68,12.18,HOLD,,
2025-12-03,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.54,20.02,1.69,HOLD,,
2025-12-03,TOTAL,,,,,,56.7,13.87,,22.45,79.15
2025-12-04,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.64,36.96,12.46,HOLD,,
2025-12-04,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.74,22.62,4.29,HOLD,,
2025-12-04,TOTAL,,,,,,59.58,16.75,,22.45,82.03
2025-12-05,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.68,37.52,13.02,HOLD,,
2025-12-05,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.74,22.62,4.29,HOLD,,
2025-12-05,TOTAL,,,,,,60.14,17.31,,22.45,82.59
2025-12-08,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.66,37.24,12.74,HOLD,,
2025-12-08,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.82,23.66,5.33,HOLD,,
2025-12-08,TOTAL,,,,,,60.9,18.07,,22.45,83.35
2025-12-09,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.63,36.82,12.32,HOLD,,
2025-12-09,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.9,24.7,6.37,HOLD,,
2025-12-09,TOTAL,,,,,,61.52,18.69,,22.45,83.97
2025-12-10,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.67,37.38,12.88,HOLD,,
2025-12-10,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,1.96,25.48,7.15,HOLD,,
2025-12-10,TOTAL,,,,,,62.86,20.03,,22.45,85.31
2025-12-11,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.95,41.3,16.8,HOLD,,
2025-12-11,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.01,26.13,7.8,HOLD,,
2025-12-11,TOTAL,,,,,,67.43,24.6,,22.45,89.88
2025-12-12,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.41,33.74,9.24,HOLD,,
2025-12-12,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.03,26.39,8.06,HOLD,,
2025-12-12,TOTAL,,,,,,60.13,17.3,,22.45,82.58
2025-12-15,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.35,32.9,8.4,HOLD,,
2025-12-15,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.04,26.52,8.19,HOLD,,
2025-12-15,TOTAL,,,,,,59.42,16.59,,22.45,81.87
2025-12-16,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.2,30.8,6.3,HOLD,,
2025-12-16,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.2,28.6,10.27,HOLD,,
2025-12-16,TOTAL,,,,,,59.4,16.57,,22.45,81.85
2025-12-17,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.15,30.1,5.6,HOLD,,
2025-12-17,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.11,27.43,9.1,HOLD,,
2025-12-17,TOTAL,,,,,,57.53,14.7,,22.45,79.98
2025-12-18,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.08,29.12,4.62,HOLD,,
2025-12-18,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.34,30.42,12.09,HOLD,,
2025-12-18,TOTAL,,,,,,59.54,16.71,,22.45,81.99
2025-12-19,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.6,2.15,30.1,5.6,HOLD,,
2025-12-19,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,1.1,2.36,30.68,12.35,HOLD,,
2025-12-19,TOTAL,,,,,,60.78,17.95,,22.45,83.23
2025-12-22,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.8,2.07,28.98,4.48,HOLD,,
2025-12-22,SLS,5.0,1.409999966621399,7.049999833106995,1.1,2.64,13.2,6.15,HOLD,,
2025-12-22,JSPR,20.0,1.8799999952316284,37.59999990463257,1.5,1.91,38.2,0.6,HOLD,,
2025-12-22,TOTAL,,,,,,80.38,11.23,,4.21,84.59
2025-12-23,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.8,1.95,27.3,2.8,HOLD,,
2025-12-23,SLS,5.0,1.409999966621399,7.049999833106995,1.1,2.77,13.85,6.8,HOLD,,
2025-12-23,JSPR,20.0,1.8799999952316284,37.59999990463257,1.5,1.81,36.2,-1.4,HOLD,,
2025-12-23,TOTAL,,,,,,77.35,8.2,,4.21,81.56
2025-12-24,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,1.8,2.07,28.98,4.48,HOLD,,
2025-12-24,SLS,5.0,1.409999966621399,7.049999833106995,1.1,2.84,14.2,7.15,HOLD,,
2025-12-24,JSPR,20.0,1.8799999952316284,37.59999990463257,1.5,1.83,36.6,-1.0,HOLD,,
2025-12-24,TOTAL,,,,,,79.78,10.63,,4.21,83.99
2025-12-26,TOTAL,,,,,,0.0,0.0,,84.48,84.48
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/csv_files/Trade Log.csv
================================================
Date,Ticker,Shares Bought,Buy Price,Cost Basis,PnL,Reason,Shares Sold,Sell Price
2025-06-30,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,0.0,MANUAL BUY - INTIAL POSITION,,
2025-06-30,CADL,5.0,5.04,25.2,0.00,MANUAL BUY - INTIAL POSITION,,
2025-06-30,CSAI,15.0,1.9,28.5,0.00,MANUAL BUY - INTIAL POSITION,,
2025-07-07,AZTR,55.0,0.25,13.75,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-07-07,CSAI,,,1.9,5.7,MANUAL SELL - Rotated into AZTR,15.0,2.28
2025-07-08,IINN,20.0,1.5,30.0,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-07-21,CADL,,,25.2,8.5,MANUAL SELL - GAIN CAPITAL FOR ACTU,5.0,6.59
2025-07-21,ACTU,6.0,5.75,34.5,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-07-28,IINN,,,9.0,-0.5400000000000009,MANUAL SELL - POSITION REDUCTION,6.0,1.41
2025-07-29,AZTR,,,13.75,-2.75,MANUAL SELL - DILUTION RISK,55.0,0.2
2025-08-01,IINN,2.0,1.74,3.48,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-08-01,ABEO,,,11.54,1.200000000000001,MANUAL SELL - TRIM AFTER SUPPORT LOSS,2.0,6.37
2025-08-07,ESPR,2.0,1.91,3.82,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-08-08,IINN,,,1.5,-6.4,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,16.0,1.1
2025-08-14,ATYR,8.0,5.09,40.72,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-08-18,ACTU,,,34.5,14.22,MANUAL SELL - ,6.0,8.12
2025-08-18,ESPR,,,3.82,0.3199999999999998,MANUAL SELL - ,2.0,2.07
2025-08-18,IINN,10.0,1.25,12.5,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-08-18,AXGN,2.0,14.96,29.92,0.0,MANUAL BUY - New position,,
2025-09-02,IINN,,,12.5,-0.9000000000000004,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,10.0,1.16
2025-09-02,ATYR,4.0,5.44,21.76,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-04,FBIO,1.0,2.85,2.85,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-08,AXGN,,,29.92,2.280000000000001,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.0,16.1
2025-09-08,FBIO,2.0,3.8,7.6,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-08,FDMT,2.0,7.35,14.7,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-12,ATYR,,,10.413333333333334,1.3866666666666667,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.0,5.9
2025-09-15,ATYR,,,52.06666666666667,-39.46666666666667,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,10.0,1.26
2025-09-15,FBIO,5.0,3.85,19.25,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-15,SNGX,5.0,2.859999895095825,14.299999475479126,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-15,ABEO,,,5.77,2.52,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,4.0,6.4
2025-09-22,SNGX,,,14.299999475479126,-1.4999994754791253,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,5.0,2.56
2025-09-22,FDMT,,,7.35,-0.6999999999999993,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,1.0,6.65
2025-09-22,FBIO,,,9.801,0.2309999999999998,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.64,3.8
2025-09-22,ALDX,6.0,4.93,29.58,0.0,MANUAL BUY MOO - Filled,,
2025-09-22,SPRO,12.0,2.01,24.12,0.0,MANUAL BUY MOO - Filled,,
2025-09-23,FDMT,,,7.35,0.1600002288818363,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,1.0,7.510000228881836
2025-09-24,ALDX,1.0,5.05,5.05,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-25,ALDX,1.0,4.95,4.95,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-25,SPRO,,,2.01,-0.72,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,12.0,1.95
2025-09-29,ALDX,,,9.895,0.4050001907348637,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.0,5.150000095367432
2025-09-29,FBIO,2.0,3.9,7.8,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-09-29,SPRO,13.0,1.8899999856948853,24.56999981403351,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-01,FBIO,,,3.957,-10.41,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,7.0,2.47
2025-10-06,ALDX,,,14.8425,2.497500629425049,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,3.0,5.78000020980835
2025-10-06,ALDX,,,14.8425,2.497500629425049,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,3.0,5.78000020980835
2025-10-06,ALDX,,,14.8425,2.497500629425049,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,3.0,5.78000020980835
2025-10-06,OKYO,10.0,2.0799999237060547,20.799999237060547,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-06,TLSA,8.0,1.9900000095367432,15.920000076293944,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-07,ALDX,,,14.8425,1.6875006866455085,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,3.0,5.510000228881836
2025-10-08,TLSA,,,3.9800000190734863,0.5199999809265137,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.0,2.25
2025-10-08,TLSA,,,3.9800000190734863,0.5199999809265137,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,2.0,2.25
2025-10-10,SPRO,9.0,2.38,21.42,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-13,OKYO,,,20.799999237060547,-0.8999991416931152,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,10.0,1.9900000095367432
2025-10-13,SPRO,,,14.63318175901066,1.8168175734173173,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,7.0,2.3499999046325684
2025-10-13,MIST,17.0,2.0299999713897705,34.5099995136261,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-20,SPRO,,,31.356818055022845,1.943182374130597,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,15.0,2.220000028610229
2025-10-20,TLSA,,,11.94000005722046,-0.239999771118164,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,6.0,1.950000047683716
2025-10-20,AYTU,10.0,2.259999990463257,22.59999990463257,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-20,MBOT,8.0,2.8499999046325684,22.799999237060547,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-27,MIST,1.0,1.9,1.9,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-10-28,MBOT,,,2.8499999046325684,-4.4,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,8.0,2.3
2025-11-06,MIST,,,2.022777750757005,-5.81,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,18.0,1.7
2025-11-06,AYTU,,,2.259999990463257,-4.6,AUTOMATED SELL - STOPLOSS TRIGGERED,10.0,1.8
2025-11-10,MIST,14.0,1.75,24.5,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-11-10,VTGN,6.0,4.010000228881836,24.060001373291016,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-11-10,AYTU,8.0,2.009999990463257,16.079999923706055,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-11-17,AYTU,,,16.079999923706055,0.6399993896484375,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,8.0,2.0899999141693115
2025-11-17,SLS,13.0,1.409999966621399,18.329999566078182,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-12-03,VTGN,,,24.060001373291016,-2.460001373291014,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,6.0,3.6
2025-12-22,SLS,,,11.279999732971191,8.080000877380371,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,8.0,2.4200000762939453
2025-12-22,JSPR,20.0,1.8799999952316284,37.59999990463257,0.0,MANUAL BUY LIMIT - Filled,,
2025-12-26,MIST,,,24.5,4.620000000000001,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,14.0,2.08
2025-12-26,SLS,,,7.049999833106995,7.500000596046448,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,5.0,2.9100000858306885
2025-12-26,JSPR,,,37.59999990463257,-0.9999990463256836,MANUAL SELL LIMIT - ,20.0,1.8300000429153442
================================================
FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/evaluation/evaluation_report.md
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---
title: "Evaluating ChatGPT as a Portfolio Decision-Maker in Micro-Cap Equities"
subtitle: "An Exploratory, Forward-Only Paper Trading Study"
author: "Nathan Smith"
date: "January 2025"
---
-->
# Evaluating ChatGPT as a Portfolio Decision-Maker in Micro-Cap Equities
**An Exploratory, Forward-Only Paper Trading Study by Nathan Smith**
## Abstract
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being applied to financial tasks; however, systematic research on LLMs acting as autonomous decision-making agents remains limited. This evaluation presents a paper-trading study of ChatGPT acting as a portfolio decision-maker within the U.S. listed micro-cap equity market.
Over the six-month experimental period, the model was prompted using daily trading updates and weekly portfolio evaluations. ChatGPT had complete control over portfolio decisions, while human input was strictly limited to prompting and trade execution.
The evaluation found that portfolio outcomes were heavily influenced by a small number of concentrated positions. Model behavior was characterized by high portfolio concentration, persistence in ticker-level theses, and asymmetric downside exposure. The model frequently re-entered tickers with prior realized losses and relied on event-driven outcomes, contributing disproportionately to overall portfolio drawdowns.
Rather than optimizing performance or assessing predictive skill, this evaluation examines how an LLM allocates capital, manages risk, and exhibits trading behavior under conditions of limited capital and elevated risk within the micro-cap equity universe,
providing insight into structural decision-making tendencies relevant to future LLM-based financial systems.
---
## Introduction
While machine learning has been utilized in finance for decades, systematic research into the behavior of LLMs as autonomous decision-makers in financial contexts remains in its early stages.
Finance serves as a valuable frontier for LLM research due to the complexity and constant evolution of equity markets. In these environments, LLMs can quantitatively evaluate many factors that affect decision-making and behavior under uncertainty.
This evaluation focuses on U.S. listed micro-cap equities. Micro-cap stocks are characterized by higher volatility, lower liquidity, and limited analyst coverage, resulting in greater informational asymmetry. Trading in this environment provides a setting in which information processing, narrative interpretation, and risk management decisions have amplified consequences.
By constraining ChatGPT to operate exclusively within this environment, this evaluation seeks to observe how an LLM behaves when informational efficiency is weaker and downside risk is elevated. Rather than prioritizing performance or optimization, this evaluation seeks to identify decision-making behavior, portfolio construction tendencies, and observed failure modes under conditions of limited capital and heightened risk.
This study seeks to answer: "When ChatGPT is placed in a forward-only trading environment as a portfolio-managing agent given limited starting capital, what behavior patterns emerge?"
---
## Contribution & Scope
### Scope of Evaluation
ChatGPT functioned as a decision-maker within the experiment. Trading style, risk management, and position sizing were determined entirely by the model and human input was constrained to manually inputting trades and prompting. The study was strictly confined to stocks in the micro-cap sector in U.S. listed exhanges with limited starting capital ($100). The experiment timeframe was approximately 6 calendar months.
### Nature of Contribution
The study contributes detailed documentation of decision behavior, execution results, and observed failure modes in the limited information and high volatility of micro-cap equities. The study documents decision behavior within a fixed experimental setup and is not intended as a general assessment of LLM trading ability or as a deployable trading system.
---
## Experimental Setup
### Human Input and Execution
Portfolio and trade log data were updated manually after each NYSE trading day using a standardized processing script, which generated a structured daily input summary (see Appendix C.3). This summary was provided to the language model as the sole input for decision-making. If trade actions were requested, they were executed on the subsequent trading day. All market data were restricted to only regular trading hours; no pre-market or after-hours data were collected or used.
Human involvement was strictly limited to data entry and trade execution. No discretionary overrides or optimizations were applied to model-generated decisions.
On a limited number of occasions, daily updates could not be performed following market close. In these cases, the missed update was processed using only past data on that market day. The model was explicitly constrained to rely solely on the provided input and was prohibited from accessing external or future information.
### Weekly Research Cycle and Execution Exceptions
A weekly research cycle was conducted on Fridays using a dedicated deep research prompt (see Appendix C.2) and the "Deep Research" feature was used. When using the "Deep Research" mode, the model will ask clarifying questions. When the model asked for trading guidance, no judgement was given; however, questions regarding rules and constraints were always answered accurately. Any trade actions proposed outside this framework on Fridays were deferred pending inclusion in the weekly research output. The resulting report was archived, and all trade actions outlined were executed during the subsequent trading week.
---
## Data Description
### Types of Data Collected
This dataset includes overall daily portfolio data for equity and cash, and also includes individual ticker data for each given data. Trade logs were kept in the event of both buying and selling of securities. See Appendix A.0.2 for detailed schema for both CSV files. Raw analytical reports generated during execution were archived in PDF format. Associated textual summaries were also recorded; however, neither the raw reports nor the summaries were incorporated into the analyses presented in this report.
### Granularity
All benchmark and portfolio data are recorded at daily frequency, with values reflecting end-of-day observations.
### Time Span
The experiment covers the period from June 27, 2025 to December 26, 2025, with all portfolio and benchmark data recorded within this timeframe.
### Figure Data Sources
- (Figure 1–2) Equity series + equity-curve metrics (MDD, largest run) → Appendix A.1
- (Figure 6) Holding-period distribution of FIFO lot exits → Appendix A.2 and Appendix D.2
- (Figures 3–4) Position-level (“Pure PnL”) results → Appendix A.3 and Appendix D.3–D.4
- (Figure 5) Episode metrics + PCR → Appendix A.13–A.15 and Appendix D.7
- (Figure 7) Total logged holding days by ticker (count of unique trading dates with Shares > 0 from Daily Updates.csv)
→ Appendix A.16 (Total Logged Holding Days by Ticker definition)
→ Appendix D.9 (Total Logged Holding Days by Ticker table)
- (Figure 8) Repeated buy-side exposure per ticker (count of buy transactions per ticker from Trade Log.csv, plotted as Buy_Entries - 1)
→ Appendix A.17 (Buy-Side Entries and Re-Entries definition)
→ Appendix D.10 (Buy Entries and Re-Entries by Ticker table)
---
## Methodology
### Research Design
This study employs a forward-looking, rule-based observational design with quasi-experimental controls.
### Decision-Making Framework
The large language model ChatGPT was used as a decision-making engine for the portfolio. The model was tasked with generating daily and weekly trade decisions based exclusively on structured summaries of portfolio state and market data.
### Micro-Cap Focus
The model was restricted to purchasing equities within the microcapitalization universe (market capitalization <= $300 million) on U.S listed stock exchanges. This constraint was imposed to evaluate model behavior in securities characterized by limited institutional coverage and reduced analyst attention.
Given these conditions, the model’s reasoning was expected to rely primarily on publicly available disclosures, such as company press releases, and on information typically discussed in retail-focused analyses. This design choice allowed observation of the model’s decision-making processes in environments with sparse formal coverage and higher informational asymmetry.
### Data Sources and Information Constraints
Market data used for portfolio calculations, metrics, and summaries were sourced from the Python library "yfinance" and restricted to end-of-day observations during regular trading hours. These data were processed into standardized daily input summaries reflecting historical price information, portfolio holdings, and cash balances.
Although the research process permitted consultation of publicly available web sources for contextual analysis, the language model did not have direct access to external websites, raw market data feeds, or real-time information at decision time. Instead, the model operated exclusively on the structured summaries provided as input.
Weekly research reports and output summaries generated during the study were archived for documentation and analysis purposes. These materials were not incorporated into subsequent model inputs and did not influence future decision-making. Textual reports were not analyzed or used for the conclusions stated in this study.
All information supplied to the model was limited to data available as of the close of the relevant trading day. No future market data, post-close information, or subsequent outcomes were included in any model input.
**NOTE: Trade-level statistics were computed at the FIFO lot level, with partial exits treated as independent realized lots rather than as distinct position entries.**
### Bias Mitigation and Validity Controls
Multiple controls were implemented to mitigate common sources of bias in trading studies. To prevent lookahead bias, all model decisions were generated using only information available prior to trade execution, and all trades were executed on a forward-only basis.
Human involvement was strictly limited to data entry and execution of model-generated instructions. No discretionary overrides, trade filtering, or post hoc optimizations were applied at any point during the experimental period.
On occasions when daily data updates could not be performed immediately following market close, missed updates were processed using only information available as of that trading day. The model was explicitly constrained to rely solely on the provided historical inputs, ensuring that delayed data entry did not introduce access to future information.
Although prompt templates evolved over the course of the evaluation, all changes were limited to clarifying existing rules and improving the consistency and precision of report formatting. No changes were made to decision logic, constraints, or trade selection criteria.
---
## Performance Results
**Figure 1.** Portfolio equity versus benchmarks (normalized to $100) over time.
Benchmarks such as the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 were included to provide contextual reference for broad market conditions during the experimental period rather than to evaluate relative performance. The benchmarks serve to anchor the observed equity trajectory within market regimes; however, all conclusions in this evaluation are derived from portfolio behavior, decision patterns, and realized outcomes, and are not contingent on benchmark performance comparisons.
As shown in Figure 1, portfolio equity declined substantially relative to both the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 over the experimental period.
**Figure 2.** Portfolio equity with max drawdown percentage (red) and largest run (green).
Figure 2 highlights the largest positive equity movement and the maximum drawdown observed during the experimental period. The largest run occurred between November 13, 2025 and November 18, 2025, during which portfolio equity increased by 21.51%. The maximum drawdown reached -50.33%, corresponding to an equity value of $67.10 on November 6, 2025.
---
## Trade-Level Analysis
Using FIFO lot-level reconstruction, 46 realized lot exits were observed. Exactly 50% of lot exits were profitable; however, average losses exceeded average gains (-3.83 vs +3.01), producing a profit factor of 0.82 and a negative per-lot expectancy of -0.41. Median outcomes showed the opposite pattern, indicating that overall underperformance was driven by a small number of large losses rather than uniformly poor trade selection.
Full Individual Trade Table found in Appendix D.2.
---
## Concentration and Risk Analysis
**Figure 3.** Realized PnL (USD) by ticker.
Figure 3 shows 10 of the 22 tickers the model bought within the experimental period generated profits.
Profits among tickers generally had concentrated profits; with the exception of ATYR,
losses were less concentrated.
**Figure 4.** Top realized PnL (USD) ticker wins vs. losses.
As shown in Figure 4, realized losses were larger in magnitude than realized gains. The most significant downside outcome was attributable to ATYR, indicating that overall portfolio performance was strongly influenced by a small number of adverse position-level outcomes.
On average, the portfolio held 3.1 tickers per trading day, indicating a high degree of concentration throughout the experimental period (Appendix D.8).
**Figure 5.** Peak Capture Ratio (exit PnL divided by peak unrealized PnL) plotted against peak unrealized profit for valid trade episodes.
Four episodes had null Peak Capture Ratios due to the peak recorded PnL value being below zero. These tickers were left out of the graph.
Two other trade episodes were also excluded due to methodological reasons. The ATYR episode produced a valid capture ratio; however, realized outcomes were materially affected by execution constraints following a large overnight price gap, requiring a manual exit at the opening price and preventing normal stop-loss execution. As a result, the observed ratio reflects execution limitations rather than exit timing behavior. The FBIO episode, by contrast, represents a structural outlier in which a small unrealized peak preceded a large realized loss, producing an extreme negative capture ratio driven by denominator instability. FBIO is therefore excluded for interpretability.
The definition of a trade episode is provided in Appendix A.13. The complete trade-episode table is available in Appendix D.7.
Figure 5 indicates that, for the remaining episodes, exits often captured a meaningful fraction of peak unrealized PnL. Peak Capture Ratios varied substantially across episodes, with no clear relationship between peak PnL magnitude and exit timing behavior.
Although trade execution occurred at the FIFO lot level, aggregation of realized outcomes at the position level reveals that only 10 of 22 tickers generated positive total PnL. Average losses exceeded average gains in magnitude, and the largest single position loss dominated overall results, consistent with exposure to binary, event-driven return dynamics.
The distribution of FIFO lot-level outcomes (reported in Trade-Level Analysis) aligns with the concentration patterns observed at the ticker level, indicating that portfolio-level concentration emerged from a small number of large-magnitude realized exits rather than from uniformly poor trade execution.
---
## Behavioral Analysis
**Figure 6.** Distribution of holding periods across individual closed lots.
Figure 6 shows a strongly right-skewed distribution with a long right tail. The majority of FIFO lot exits occurred within approximately 10–20 days, while a small number of lots were held for substantially longer durations, including one holding period exceeding 70 days calendar days.
**Figure 7.** Total individual ticker holding duration during trading days.
Figure 7 shows that cumulative holding time was concentrated in a small number of tickers, with ABEO and MIST accounting for the largest total time-in-portfolio exposure. Despite their extended holding durations, these positions produced divergent realized outcomes: ABEO ranked fifth in total realized PnL, while MIST ranked eighth from the bottom. This contrast indicates that prolonged holding time alone was not a reliable determinant of portfolio-level performance.
**Note: Figure 6 reports FIFO lot holding durations in calendar days to capture individual lot persistence, while Figure 7 measures cumulative holding time in trading days to reflect overall market exposure.**
Instead, individual ticker outcomes were more impactful for overall performance than holding duration.
**Figure 8.** Number of repeated buy-side trade entries per ticker.
Seven of the 22 tickers were purchased on multiple occasions. Notably, the three tickers with the lowest realized PnL (see Figure 4) were all subject to repeated buy-side entries. In contrast, of the top three highest PnL tickers in Figure 3, only ALDX was repurchased more than once.
This pattern suggests persistence in position-level theses, with the model exhibiting limited responsiveness to realized performance when determining whether to re-enter previously traded securities.
---
## FIFO-Lot Analysis Excluding ATYR
This section examines how selected aggregate performance metrics change when the ATYR positions, the largest realized loss during the experimental period, is omitted. The purpose is to assess the sensitivity of portfolio-level summaries to single-position tail events rather than to reinterpret the primary results.
Average loss slightly improved from -$3.63 to -$2.22. Expectancy and profit factor, however, had major reversals. Profit factor improved from 0.82 to 1.52, and expectancy went from -0.41 to 0.49.
Notably, these reversals occur without meaningful changes in win rate or median lot outcomes, suggesting that aggregate underperformance is attributable to tail-risk exposure rather than decision failure.
Metrics and tables discussed in this section are reported in Appendix D.12.
---
## Operational Constraints
### Human Input Required
Human input was needed in the execution loop for inputting trades and prompting for each trading day.
### Micro-Cap Stocks Only
The model was only allowed to buy U.S. listed tickers with market capitalizations equal to or less than 300M. If a held ticker's capitalization became greater than 300M, the model could not buy any more shares.
### Close Data Calculations
All data was calculated based on end-of-day trading data only.
### Simulation Limitations
The trading simulation did not incorporate transaction costs such as commissions or bid–ask spread effects.
### Financial Derivatives Prohibited
Financial derivatives were strictly not allowed.
---
## Failure Modes
### Over Concentration
Throughout the experiment, the portfolio routinely consisted of 2-3 concentrated tickers. The overall portfolio was particularly sensitive to individual ticker factors.
### Buying Past Losing Stocks
As shown in Figure 4 and Figure 7, FBIO and IINN were among the largest contributors to realized losses. Both tickers had relatively high trade frequencies, with FBIO having four buy-side trades and IINN receiving three.
### Reliance on Binary Outcomes
Trade selection was characterized by exposure to event-driven catalysts (e.g., regulatory announcements), associated with large positive or negative outcomes. Comparatively limited exposure was observed in lower-volatility or incremental-return investing.
---
## Discussion
### Portfolio Concentration
Throughout the experiment, the model's portfolio consisted of three tickers for trading days on average. The average cost basis for a ticker position was $25.28 (25% of starting capital). This indicates the model preferred high concentration positions with limited portfolio diversity. This allocation pattern reflects a preference for highly concentrated positions and limited diversification, resulting in substantial exposure to individual ticker-level movements.
### Risk and Loss Asymmetry
The model’s performance was characterized by pronounced loss asymmetry. As shown in Figure 2, the portfolio reached a maximum drawdown of approximately 50% over the experimental period. The largest losing ticker (ATYR) generated losses more than double the gains produced by the largest winning ticker (SLS). On the day of ATYR’s sharp decline, the portfolio experienced an approximately 40% single-day equity drop. Loss asymmetry was driven primarily by this single event, as other losing positions were comparatively small and did not materially affect portfolio-level outcomes.
### Position Persistence and Re-Entry
According to Figure 8, the model bought approximately 32% of tickers entered during the experimental period more than once (7 of 22). As shown in Figure 3, five of these repeatedly traded tickers generated negative cumulative realized PnL across all engagements. In contrast, the two of the highest-PnL tickers in Figure 3 were each purchased only once, with the exception of ALDX, during the experimental period. This pattern indicates persistence in position-level exposure, with re-entry occurring despite unfavorable prior outcomes rather than avoidance following realized losses.
### Holding Duration and Outcomes
Figure 6 shows the majority of exits occurred within approximately 10–20 calendar days, while a small number of lots were held for substantially longer durations, including one holding period exceeding 70 total days. Holding duration, however, did not correlate with substantially higher or lower realized PnL. As shown in Figure 7, the two tickers with the highest cumulative holding time, MIST and ABEO, did not rank among the top or bottom three tickers by total realized PnL in Figure 4.
### Observational Analysis
These observations are purely qualitative and are not analyzed quantitatively in the evaluation due to limitations of collected data and research scope.
During execution, stop-loss levels were often adjusted upward prior to anticipated catalyst events. However, large adverse price moves occurred outside regular trading hours, rendering these stop-loss levels ineffective. The model appeared to persist in this behavior even after the substantial equity loss associated with the ATYR outcome.
The model would occasionally hallucinate portfolio details or explicitly state rationale that was not grounded in the experimental setup during Deep Research reports. For example, in one weekly report the model referenced the absence of using hedging instruments, despite the use of derivatives and short positions being clearly prohibited throughout the experiment. This specific inconsistency reflects narrative generation rather than a change in execution logic. A representative excerpt is provided in Appendix B.
---
## Limitations
Due to the limited experimental period, the data may not be representative of the model's behavior across different market regimes.
The evaluation should only be analyzed in the context of micro-cap equities; LLM behavior may vary widely in different market capitalizations.
The results analyzed are based on a single experimental run and do not capture variability across repeated runs or alternative random initial conditions. This study is descriptive in nature, documenting observed decision-making behavior when an LLM is placed in a constrained capital allocation role.
### Prompt and Model Variability
The experimental setup relied on interactive use of the publicly available ChatGPT interface, introducing sources of variability that could not be fully controlled. Prompt templates evolved modestly to clarify existing constraints, newer model versions were adopted as they became available, and generation parameters such as temperature were not explicitly fixed.
The evaluation focuses on observable decision behaviors under consistent informational and procedural constraints rather than on comparisons across specific model configurations.
---
## Conclusion
Across the experimental period, portfolio equity outcomes were dominated by a small number of high-impact trades. High position concentration amplified exposure to individual ticker outcomes, with a single adverse position exerting a disproportionate influence on overall portfolio balance. Trading behavior exhibited persistence in position-level theses, as the model re-entered tickers despite prior exits, including cases with realized losses. Tickers subject to repeated buy-side entries accounted for the largest cumulative equity losses. In addition, the model held several positions for extended durations despite ultimately contributing minimally to overall portfolio performance, indicating that holding period length alone was not a reliable determinant of realized outcomes. Exit outcomes frequently occurred after a substantial portion of unrealized gains had accrued, though full capture of peak PnL was uncommon.
Taken together, these results suggest that, when placed in a capital allocation role, an LLM exhibits decision-making patterns resembling high-conviction, thesis-driven discretionary trading. Portfolio outcomes were shaped less by incremental trade-level performance and more by concentration, persistence in position-level narratives, and asymmetric downside exposure.
---
## Future Research
### Controlling Stochastic Variation in Model Outputs
Future evaluations could reduce uncontrolled variability by replacing interactive human prompting with algorithmic prompting and fixed generation parameters.
Programmatic control over sampling settings, such as temperature, would allow differences in experimental outcomes to be attributed to stochastic variation rather than procedural differences. This modification would support more rigorous comparison across runs and across models, while preserving the forward-only execution constraints of the study.
### Comparison Across Sectors
Future comparisons across sectors in the stock market could reveal model patterns given different environments. Factors such as risk management, report confidence, and behavioral changes following market events could be used to evaluate how decision-making differs across market scenarios.
### Decision-Making Differences Across Models
Future work could examine differences in decision-making behavior across large language models under identical experimental conditions. Comparing model behavior could highlight differences in risk management, concentration, persistence, and responses to realized outcomes when acting as portfolio decision-makers.
### Capital Scale and Risk Management Behavior
Evaluations conducted under identical constraints, with the exception of increased starting capital, would likely produce different risk management behaviors. Future work could analyze how starting capital influences position sizing, diversification, and overall portfolio performance.
### Post Hoc Sentiment Analysis of Generated Reports
By analyzing the collected reports over the course of the experiment, future work could examine the relationship between expressed sentiment and realized portfolio performance over time. This analysis could also investigate divergences between generated report language and observed model behavior, including cases where narrative confidence did not align with portfolio actions that followed. In addition, the frequency and nature of model hallucinations, such as false rule assumptions or incorrect portfolio state descriptions, could be systematically documented and analyzed.
---
## Appendix A. Metric Definitions and Formulas
### A.0 Data Provenance and Reconstruction Notes
#### A.0.1 Blended Data Collection
Portfolio monitoring and recordkeeping in this study used a blended data collection process. Two primary artifacts were maintained:
- `Trade Log.csv`, containing discrete buy and sell events including dates, shares, prices, and cost basis fields
- `Daily Updates.csv`, containing end-of-day position snapshots including shares held and per-day PnL fields by ticker
These sources were produced through an operational workflow combining manual updates and a standardized processing script. They were not generated as a single unified, transaction-perfect ledger. As a result, the analyses in this appendix should be interpreted as reconstructions derived from blended records rather than as broker-grade, audit-ready accounting statements.
#### A.0.2 Source File Schemas
The analyses in this report rely on the following source-file column schemas.
Daily Updates.csv columns:
- Date
- Ticker
- Shares
- Buy Price
- Cost Basis
- Stop Loss
- Current Price
- Total Value
- PnL
- Action
- Cash Balance
- Total Equity
Trade Log.csv columns:
- Date
- Ticker
- Shares Bought
- Buy Price
- Cost Basis
- PnL
- Reason
- Shares Sold
- Sell Price
#### A.0.3 Reconstruction Strategy vs Ground Truth
Metrics in Appendix A are computed using reconstruction strategies designed to produce consistent, interpretable summaries of behavior:
- FIFO lot-level realized exits are reconstructed from `Trade Log.csv` by matching sell transactions to prior buy transactions under a first-in, first-out convention
- Position-level (Pure PnL) statistics are reconstructed by aggregating reconstructed FIFO lot exits to one row per ticker
- Episode-level statistics (including Peak Capture Ratio) are reconstructed from `Daily Updates.csv` by identifying continuous holding intervals from the `Shares` field and summarizing the recorded daily `PnL` series
- Equity-curve statistics (including Maximum Drawdown and Largest Run) are reconstructed from `Daily Updates.csv` using rows where `Ticker == "TOTAL"` and the `Total Equity` field, with a baseline row inserted
These reconstructions approximate realized and unrealized dynamics for analytical purposes. They are not intended to be treated as definitive accounting of tax lots, brokerage fills, corporate actions, intraday execution effects, or all sources of slippage.
#### A.0.4 Interpretation Guidance
Because the underlying dataset is blended and reconstructed, the metrics are intended to support behavioral characterization (for example: concentration, persistence, re-entry frequency, and exit timing tendencies) rather than precise performance attribution.
Where reconstruction choices matter, this appendix defines the conventions explicitly (FIFO lot matching, calendar-day holding duration, episode segmentation, and equity-curve segmentation) so that results can be reproduced under the same assumptions.
### A.1 Equity Curve Metrics (Maximum Drawdown and Largest Run)
#### A.1.1 Portfolio Equity Series Used
Maximum drawdown and largest run calculations are computed from the portfolio equity time series constructed as follows:
- Filter `Daily Updates.csv` to rows where `Ticker == "TOTAL"`
- Parse `Date` as a datetime
- Coerce `Total Equity` to numeric
- Prepend a baseline row:
- Date = 2025-06-27
- Total Equity = 100.0
- Concatenate, sort by Date, and drop duplicate Dates keeping the last record for each Date
This produces a single Date-sorted equity series used for all equity-curve metrics.
#### A.1.2 Running Maximum
The running maximum at time t is defined as the maximum observed portfolio equity from the start of the series through time t.
In code, this is computed as:
- Running Max = cumulative maximum of `Total Equity`
#### A.1.3 Drawdown Percentage
Drawdown percentage at time t is computed as:
- Drawdown % = (`Total Equity` / `Running Max` - 1.0) × 100.0
This produces values of 0.0 at new equity highs and negative values when equity is below the prior peak.
#### A.1.4 Maximum Drawdown
Maximum drawdown is the most negative drawdown percentage observed across the full series.
In code, the maximum drawdown point is selected by:
- finding the row with the minimum value of `Drawdown %`
Reported maximum drawdown fields:
- max_drawdown_date: Date of the minimum `Drawdown %` row
- max_drawdown_equity: `Total Equity` on that Date
- max_drawdown_pct: `Drawdown %` on that Date
#### A.1.5 Largest Run (Run-Up from Local Minimum to Subsequent Peak)
Largest Run is defined as the largest percentage increase from a local minimum to a subsequent peak, using the segmentation logic in `find_largest_gain(...)`.
Algorithm summary:
- Initialize the first observation as the current local minimum and current peak
- If a new higher equity value occurs, update the current peak
- If a decline occurs (current equity < current peak), compute the completed run gain:
- gain = (peak_val - min_val) / min_val × 100.0
- update the best run if this gain exceeds the prior best
- reset local minimum and peak to the current observation
- After reaching the end of the series, also evaluate the final run segment
Reported largest run fields:
- largest_run_start: Date of the local minimum for the best run
- largest_run_end: Date of the subsequent peak for the best run
- largest_run_gain_pct: percent gain for the best run
Interpretation note:
- This is a segment-based definition determined by the reset-on-decline rule above, rather than a global search over all possible minimum-to-maximum intervals.
### A.2 FIFO Lot-Level Accounting
#### A.2.1 FIFO Lot Definition
A FIFO lot is defined as a discrete group of shares created by a single buy transaction in `Trade Log.csv`.
In the reconstruction code, each buy transaction creates one open lot with:
- Entry_Date: the transaction `Date`
- Shares: `Shares Bought`
- Entry_Price: `Cost Basis / Shares Bought` (per-share)
Lots are ordered chronologically by Entry_Date and are matched to sells using a first-in, first-out accounting convention.
#### A.2.2 FIFO Lot-Level Realized Exit
A FIFO lot-level realized exit occurs when some or all shares from one or more open FIFO lots are closed via a sell transaction.
In the reconstruction code, when a sell occurs:
- The sell quantity (`Shares Sold`) is allocated to the oldest open lots first
- Partial lot closures are permitted
- Each partial closure is recorded as a distinct realized exit record
For each realized exit record, the following fields are recorded:
- Ticker: security identifier
- Entry_Date: date the lot was opened
- Exit_Date: date the shares were sold
- Shares: number of shares closed from the lot
- Entry_Price: per-share entry price of the lot
- Exit_Price: per-share exit price (taken from `Sell Price`)
- PnL: realized profit or loss in USD, computed as `Shares × (Exit_Price - Entry_Price)`
- Holding_Days: calendar days between Entry_Date and Exit_Date, computed as `(Exit_Date - Entry_Date).days`
All FIFO lot-level performance metrics are computed from this realized exit table.
### A.3 Position-Level Aggregati
gitextract_7w57q3y0/ ├── .github/ │ └── workflows/ │ └── workflow.yaml ├── .gitignore ├── Experiments/ │ └── chatgpt_micro-cap/ │ ├── collected_artifacts/ │ │ ├── README.md │ │ ├── Weekly Deep Research (MD)/ │ │ │ ├── Starting Research Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 1 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 10 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 11 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 12 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 13 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 14 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 15 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 16 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 17 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 18 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 19 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 2 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 20 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 21 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 22 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 23 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 24 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 25 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 26 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 3 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 4 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 5 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 6 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 7 Summary.md │ │ │ ├── Week 8 Summary.md │ │ │ └── Week 9 Summary.md │ │ ├── chats.md │ │ └── deep_research_index.md │ ├── csv_files/ │ │ ├── Daily Updates.csv │ │ └── Trade Log.csv │ ├── evaluation/ │ │ └── evaluation_report.md │ ├── graphing/ │ │ ├── daily_returns.py │ │ ├── data_helper.py │ │ ├── drawdown.py │ │ ├── episode_pcr_scatter.py │ │ ├── equity_vs_baseline.py │ │ ├── highest_pnl_by_ticker.py │ │ ├── holding_chart.py │ │ ├── holding_distribution.py │ │ ├── max_drawdown_vs_largest_run.py │ │ ├── repeated_ticker_exposure.py │ │ ├── returns_by_trades.py │ │ └── top_losses_vs_wins.py │ ├── scripts/ │ │ ├── metrics/ │ │ │ ├── episode_pcr.py │ │ │ └── load_dataV3.py │ │ └── processing/ │ │ ├── ProcessPortfolio.py │ │ └── trading_script.py │ └── tables/ │ └── metrics.txt ├── Makefile ├── Other/ │ ├── AUTOMATION_README.md │ ├── CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md │ ├── CONTRIBUTING.md │ ├── License.txt │ └── ignore_list.gitignore ├── README.md └── requirements.txt
SYMBOL INDEX (54 symbols across 12 files) FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/daily_returns.py function plot_daily_returns_distribution (line 4) | def plot_daily_returns_distribution( FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/data_helper.py function load_data (line 8) | def load_data(trade_log_path: str | Path = TRADE_LOG_PATH, daily_updates... function assemble_path (line 14) | def assemble_path(file_name: str) -> Path: FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/drawdown.py function plot_drawdown (line 6) | def plot_drawdown(equity_df: pd.DataFrame): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/equity_vs_baseline.py function load_portfolio_totals (line 13) | def load_portfolio_totals() -> pd.DataFrame: function download_baseline (line 30) | def download_baseline(ticker: str, start_date: pd.Timestamp, end_date: p... function find_largest_gain (line 49) | def find_largest_gain(df: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.Timestamp, pd.Timest... function compute_drawdown (line 97) | def compute_drawdown(df: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.Timestamp, float, flo... function main (line 108) | def main() -> dict: FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/holding_chart.py function compute_total_logged_days_by_ticker (line 4) | def compute_total_logged_days_by_ticker(daily_df: pd.DataFrame): function plot_total_logged_days_by_ticker (line 19) | def plot_total_logged_days_by_ticker(daily_df: pd.DataFrame): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/holding_distribution.py function compute_fifo_holding_days (line 4) | def compute_fifo_holding_days(trades_df: pd.DataFrame): function plot_holding_period_distribution (line 40) | def plot_holding_period_distribution(trades_df: pd.DataFrame, bins: int ... function load_data (line 56) | def load_data(trade_log_path: str, daily_updates_path: str): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/max_drawdown_vs_largest_run.py function load_portfolio_totals (line 8) | def load_portfolio_totals() -> pd.DataFrame: function download_baseline (line 25) | def download_baseline(ticker: str, start_date: pd.Timestamp, end_date: p... function find_largest_gain (line 44) | def find_largest_gain(df: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.Timestamp, pd.Timest... function compute_drawdown (line 92) | def compute_drawdown(df: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[pd.Timestamp, float, flo... function main (line 103) | def main() -> dict: FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/repeated_ticker_exposure.py function plot_repeated_ticker_exposure (line 5) | def plot_repeated_ticker_exposure(trades_df: pd.DataFrame): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/returns_by_trades.py function plot_return_contribution (line 4) | def plot_return_contribution(trades_df: pd.DataFrame): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/top_losses_vs_wins.py function plot_top_wins_vs_losses (line 5) | def plot_top_wins_vs_losses(trades_df: pd.DataFrame, n: int = 3): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/metrics/load_dataV3.py function build_fifo_lot_exits (line 7) | def build_fifo_lot_exits(trade_log: pd.DataFrame, exclude_atyr: bool = F... function build_pure_pnl_by_ticker (line 64) | def build_pure_pnl_by_ticker(lot_exits: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: function compute_metrics (line 86) | def compute_metrics(df: pd.DataFrame, pnl_col: str, holding_col: str): function compute_trade_metrics (line 121) | def compute_trade_metrics(trade_log: pd.DataFrame, exclude_atyr: bool = ... function print_results (line 178) | def print_results(results: dict): FILE: Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/processing/trading_script.py function set_asof (line 47) | def set_asof(date: str | datetime | pd.Timestamp | None) -> None: function _effective_now (line 64) | def _effective_now() -> datetime: function _log_initial_state (line 83) | def _log_initial_state(): function _read_json_file (line 101) | def _read_json_file(path: Path) -> Optional[Dict]: function load_benchmarks (line 124) | def load_benchmarks(script_dir: Path | None = None) -> List[str]: function _normalize_number_string (line 179) | def _normalize_number_string(s: str) -> str: function parse_starting_equity (line 188) | def parse_starting_equity(s: Union[str, float, Decimal]) -> Optional[Dec... function last_trading_date (line 213) | def last_trading_date(today: datetime | None = None) -> pd.Timestamp: function check_weekend (line 226) | def check_weekend() -> str: function trading_day_window (line 230) | def trading_day_window(target: datetime | None = None) -> tuple[pd.Times... class FetchResult (line 257) | class FetchResult: function _to_datetime_index (line 261) | def _to_datetime_index(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: function _normalize_ohlcv (line 269) | def _normalize_ohlcv(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: function _yahoo_download (line 294) | def _yahoo_download(ticker: str, **kwargs: Any) -> pd.DataFrame: function _stooq_csv_download (line 314) | def _stooq_csv_download(ticker: str, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timest... function _stooq_download (line 352) | def _stooq_download( function _weekend_safe_range (line 376) | def _weekend_safe_range(period: str | None, start: Any, end: Any) -> tup... function download_price_data (line 400) | def download_price_data(ticker: str, **kwargs: Any) -> FetchResult: function set_data_dir (line 463) | def set_data_dir(data_dir: Path) -> None: function _ensure_df (line 478) | def _ensure_df(portfolio: pd.DataFrame | dict[str, list[object]] | list[... function process_portfolio (line 490) | def process_portfolio( function log_sell (line 771) | def log_sell( function log_manual_buy (line 807) | def log_manual_buy( function log_manual_sell (line 917) | def log_manual_sell( function daily_results (line 1009) | def daily_results(chatgpt_portfolio: pd.DataFrame, cash: float) -> None: function load_latest_portfolio_state (line 1286) | def load_latest_portfolio_state( function main (line 1376) | def main(data_dir: Path | None = None, starting_equity_override: Optiona...
Condensed preview — 60 files, each showing path, character count, and a content snippet. Download the .json file or copy for the full structured content (376K chars).
[
{
"path": ".github/workflows/workflow.yaml",
"chars": 1826,
"preview": "# yaml-language-server: $schema=https://json.schemastore.org/github-workflow.json\nname: Auto Commit\n\n# on:\n# workflow_"
},
{
"path": ".gitignore",
"chars": 33,
"preview": "CLAUDE.md\nvenv\n.idea\n__pycache__\n"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/README.md",
"chars": 423,
"preview": "# Artifact Conventions\n\nThis directory stores all generated research artifacts.\n\n## Weekly Deep Research\n\nEach research "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Starting Research Summary.md",
"chars": 944,
"preview": "## Portfolio Summary and Allocation\n\nWith a $100 capital and a 6-month horizon, we’ve constructed a concentrated micro-c"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 1 Summary.md",
"chars": 1964,
"preview": "## Revised Portfolio Allocation (July 5, 2025)\n\nAfter the above adjustments, the portfolio is repositioned as follows:\n\n"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 10 Summary.md",
"chars": 1368,
"preview": "# Portfolio Moves at a Glance\n\n_Date: August 30, 2025_\n\n## Keep / No Change\n- `ABEO` — hold 4 shares; stop $6.00. Thesis"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 11 Summary.md",
"chars": 1163,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nIn summary, our portfolio is positioning for strong catalyst-driven growth while tightening ris"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 12 Summary.md",
"chars": 2541,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary \n\nTo wrap up, our portfolio strategy for **Week 10** remains focused on catalyst-driven alpha, "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 13 Summary.md",
"chars": 1846,
"preview": "# Week 14 Thesis Outlook (Summary)\n\nThe portfolio is now streamlined around high-conviction, event-driven biotech cataly"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 14 Summary.md",
"chars": 4013,
"preview": "As we enter Week 14, the portfolio is positioned squarely around high-impact biotech catalysts, with three holdings each"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 15 Summary.md",
"chars": 4018,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nAs we enter **Week 14**, the portfolio is positioned squarely around **high-impact biotech cata"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 16 Summary.md",
"chars": 5108,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nBy rebalancing the portfolio in **Week 16**, we have sharpened our focus on high-impact, near-t"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 17 Summary.md",
"chars": 5587,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nGoing into Week 17, our portfolio is now a concentrated bet on three high-impact catalysts:\n\n--"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 18 Summary.md",
"chars": 5393,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\n---\n\n## Milestone Pharmaceuticals (MIST)\n\n**Thesis:** \nMilestone is our swing for a home run –"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 19 Summary.md",
"chars": 8315,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nTo conclude, let’s summarize the investment thesis for each current holding (and our new additi"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 2 Summary.md",
"chars": 1329,
"preview": "### Recommendation: Buy IINN (Inspira Technologies) — Top Pick for H2 2025\n**Capital Deployed:** ~$32.13 for 20 shares "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 20 Summary.md",
"chars": 4998,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\n## Overview\nThe portfolio consists of **three high-conviction, catalyst-driven biotech position"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 21 Summary.md",
"chars": 5938,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nIn conclusion, our portfolio is now streamlined to three high-conviction, catalyst-driven biote"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 22 Summary.md",
"chars": 9448,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nAs we enter Week 23, our portfolio remains a concentrated bet on biotech catalysts. Below is a "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 23 Summary.md",
"chars": 5943,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nAs we head into Week 24, our portfolio remains an all-or-nothing biotech catalyst play. Below i"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 24 Summary.md",
"chars": 3411,
"preview": "# Big Picture – Portfolio-Level Thesis\nWe deliberately constructed the portfolio in recent weeks as a concentrated bet o"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 25 Summary.md",
"chars": 6773,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nAs we head into **Week 24**, our portfolio is purposefully concentrated in **three biotech cata"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 26 Summary.md",
"chars": 15366,
"preview": "# Thesis Review Summary\n\nAs we enter the final week of this 6-month experiment, our portfolio strategy has evolved into "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 3 Summary.md",
"chars": 1578,
"preview": "## Portfolio Reallocation Summary\n\nBy implementing the above, the portfolio shifts toward higher-conviction positions. W"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 4 Summary.md",
"chars": 1677,
"preview": "## Summary of Recommended Actions (July 18, 2025)\n\n### Sell:\n- **Candel Therapeutics (CADL)** – **SELL** \n Lock in a +"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 5 Summary.md",
"chars": 2181,
"preview": "## Rationale & Conclusion\n\nThis rebalance aggressively reallocates capital toward the **highest-upside opportunities** w"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 6 Summary.md",
"chars": 2254,
"preview": "# Current Thesis Summary (Week of August 5, 2025)\n\n## ABEO – Abeona Therapeutics\nCatalyst: FDA-approved gene therapy ZEV"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 7 Summary.md",
"chars": 1816,
"preview": "# Portfolio Thesis Summary (Quick Reference)\n\n---\n\n## **ABEO (Abeona)** – Gene therapy launch\n- **Thesis:** Monetized PR"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 8 Summary.md",
"chars": 3250,
"preview": "# Trade Execution Plan (Orders for Week of Aug 18, 2025)\n\n## Sell Orders\n\n### Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) – Aug 18, 2025"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/Weekly Deep Research (MD)/Week 9 Summary.md",
"chars": 3354,
"preview": "# Updated Portfolio Thesis Summary (Post-Trade)\n\n---\n\n## ABEO (Abeona Therapeutics) – Gene Therapy Launch\n**Thesis:** \n"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/chats.md",
"chars": 470,
"preview": "# Chats\n\n**Note: I unfortunately only started documenting chats on (8-1).**\n\n| Chat | Timestamp | Link |\n|------|-------"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/collected_artifacts/deep_research_index.md",
"chars": 5941,
"preview": "# Deep Research Index\n\n> **Note:** The “Starting Research” report was written *before trading began* and outlines \nthe i"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/csv_files/Daily Updates.csv",
"chars": 31838,
"preview": "Date,Ticker,Shares,Buy Price,Cost Basis,Stop Loss,Current Price,Total Value,PnL,Action,Cash Balance,Total Equity\n2025-06"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/csv_files/Trade Log.csv",
"chars": 5812,
"preview": "Date,Ticker,Shares Bought,Buy Price,Cost Basis,PnL,Reason,Shares Sold,Sell Price\n2025-06-30,ABEO,6.0,5.77,34.62,0.0,MANU"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/evaluation/evaluation_report.md",
"chars": 75441,
"preview": "<!--\nFor PDF generation\n---\ntitle: \"Evaluating ChatGPT as a Portfolio Decision-Maker in Micro-Cap Equities\"\nsubtitle: \"A"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/daily_returns.py",
"chars": 908,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt \nimport pandas as pd\n\ndef plot_daily_returns_distribution(\n equity_df: pd.DataFrame,\n"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/data_helper.py",
"chars": 665,
"preview": "import pandas as pd \nfrom pathlib import Path\n\noverall_dir = Path(__file__).parents[1]\nTRADE_LOG_PATH = overall_dir / Pa"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/drawdown.py",
"chars": 932,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf # type: ignore\nfrom pathlib import Path\n\ndef p"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/episode_pcr_scatter.py",
"chars": 2265,
"preview": "import pandas as pd\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nfrom data_helper import DAILY_PATH, assemble_path\n# ----------------"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/equity_vs_baseline.py",
"chars": 7429,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf # type: ignore\nfrom pathlib import Path\nfrom d"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/highest_pnl_by_ticker.py",
"chars": 495,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nfrom data_helper import assemble_path, DAILY_PATH\n\ndf = pd.read_csv("
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/holding_chart.py",
"chars": 1030,
"preview": "import pandas as pd \nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\ndef compute_total_logged_days_by_ticker(daily_df: pd.DataFrame):\n "
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/holding_distribution.py",
"chars": 1948,
"preview": "import pandas as pd\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\ndef compute_fifo_holding_days(trades_df: pd.DataFrame):\n trades_"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/max_drawdown_vs_largest_run.py",
"chars": 6282,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nimport yfinance as yf # type: ignore\nfrom pathlib import Path\nfrom d"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/repeated_ticker_exposure.py",
"chars": 961,
"preview": "import pandas as pd\nfrom data_helper import assemble_path, load_data\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\ndef plot_repeated_"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/returns_by_trades.py",
"chars": 626,
"preview": "import pandas as pd \nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n\ndef plot_return_contribution(trades_df: pd.DataFrame):\n realize"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/graphing/top_losses_vs_wins.py",
"chars": 810,
"preview": "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nfrom data_helper import load_data, assemble_path\n\ndef plot_top_wins_"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/metrics/episode_pcr.py",
"chars": 1870,
"preview": "import pandas as pd\n\n# -----------------------------\n# Load and prepare data\n# -----------------------------\n\ndf = pd.re"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/metrics/load_dataV3.py",
"chars": 7531,
"preview": "import pandas as pd\nimport numpy as np\n\n# ==========================================================\n# BUILD FIFO LOT-LE"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/processing/ProcessPortfolio.py",
"chars": 411,
"preview": "\"\"\"Wrapper for the shared trading script using local data directory.\"\"\"\n\nfrom pathlib import Path\nimport sys\n\n# Allow im"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/scripts/processing/trading_script.py",
"chars": 57286,
"preview": "\"\"\"Utilities for maintaining the ChatGPT micro-cap portfolio.\n\nThis module rewrites the original script to:\n- Centralize"
},
{
"path": "Experiments/chatgpt_micro-cap/tables/metrics.txt",
"chars": 16253,
"preview": "============================================================\nFIFO LOT-LEVEL PERFORMANCE METRICS\n========================"
},
{
"path": "Makefile",
"chars": 965,
"preview": "# Virtual environment setup\nvenv:\n\tpython3 -m venv venv\n\t@echo \"Virtual environment created. Activate with: source venv/"
},
{
"path": "Other/AUTOMATION_README.md",
"chars": 4777,
"preview": "# Automated Trading System\n\nThis system automates the ChatGPT Micro-Cap trading experiment by integrating LLM APIs to ge"
},
{
"path": "Other/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md",
"chars": 5233,
"preview": "# Contributor Covenant Code of Conduct\n\n## Our Pledge\n\nWe as members, contributors, and leaders pledge to make participa"
},
{
"path": "Other/CONTRIBUTING.md",
"chars": 1477,
"preview": "# Contributing\n\nThank you for your interest in improving this project! Your time and effort are greatly appreciated.\n\nI "
},
{
"path": "Other/License.txt",
"chars": 1069,
"preview": "MIT License\n\nCopyright (c) 2025 Nathan Smith\n\nPermission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a co"
},
{
"path": "Other/ignore_list.gitignore",
"chars": 590,
"preview": "# === Python ===\n__pycache__/\n*.py[cod]\n*.pyo\n*.pyd\n.Python\nenv/\nvenv/\n.venv/\n.mypy_cache/\n.pyright/\n.pylance/\n\n# === VS"
},
{
"path": "README.md",
"chars": 4926,
"preview": "# LLM Trading Lab\nThis repository started as a **6-month live micro-cap trading experiment** in which a large language m"
},
{
"path": "requirements.txt",
"chars": 62,
"preview": "numpy==2.3.2\npandas==2.2.2\nyfinance==0.2.65\nmatplotlib==3.8.4\n"
}
]
About this extraction
This page contains the full source code of the LuckyOne7777/LLM-Trading-Lab GitHub repository, extracted and formatted as plain text for AI agents and large language models (LLMs). The extraction includes 60 files (351.7 KB), approximately 106.8k tokens, and a symbol index with 54 extracted functions, classes, methods, constants, and types. Use this with OpenClaw, Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, Windsurf, or any other AI tool that accepts text input. You can copy the full output to your clipboard or download it as a .txt file.
Extracted by GitExtract — free GitHub repo to text converter for AI. Built by Nikandr Surkov.